Market Overview for Bitcoin/Eurite (BTCEURI) on 2025-10-09

• Price action shows a bearish reversal with a failed breakout above 106,000
• RSI and MACD indicate weakening bullish momentum with overbought levels now correcting
• Volatility dipped mid-cycle, followed by a late rebound toward key support zones
• Volume spiked during the 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern near 104,400
• Fibonacci retracement levels highlight 105,000 as a potential pivot point for near-term direction

At 12:00 ET on October 9, 2025, Bitcoin/Eurite (BTCEURI) closed at 104,919.31, down from an open of 105,300 at 12:00 ET the previous day. The 24-hour range was 104,330.0 (low) to 106,574.37 (high), with a total volume of 18.656 and a turnover of 1,973,268.7 EUR. The price action reflects a bearish shift, with late-day volume confirming bearish control.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a bearish reversal from a potential breakout attempt above 106,000, followed by a pullback and bearish consolidation. Key support levels appear to be forming at 105,000 and 104,400, both of which saw increased volume and price rejection. A significant bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 104,400, signaling possible bearish continuation. A small bearish doji at 105,000 may also indicate indecision ahead of a potential break lower.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, reinforcing bearish momentum. The 50-period SMA is at 105,600, and the price has yet to reclaim it. On the daily chart, the 200-period SMA is near 105,300 and remains a critical psychological and technical level. A close below this could open the door to deeper bearish moves.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative late in the session, confirming bearish momentum after an earlier bullish divergence. The RSI crossed from overbought territory into the mid-50s, reflecting reduced buying pressure. This suggests that sellers are gaining control, with the possibility of further bearish moves toward the 103,500 level if this trend continues.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the late hours of the session as price fell toward the lower band, which is currently around 104,400. The bands remain wide, indicating ongoing uncertainty and risk of a sharp move either lower or higher. A retest of the upper band near 106,500 could see renewed bearish pressure, particularly with weak RSI readings.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern at 104,400, confirming bearish conviction. Notional turnover increased in tandem with this move, showing strong alignment between price and volume. However, a divergence appears in the final hours of the session where volume dipped slightly despite price moving lower, suggesting possible exhaustion among sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels for the 15-minute swing from 106,574.37 to 104,330.0 include 105,500 (38.2%) and 104,950 (61.8%). The 61.8% level has held twice in the past 24 hours, acting as a support. A break below this could target the 104,000 level. For the daily swing from 106,574.37 to 104,330.0, the 50% retracement is at 105,452, which has also seen repeated rejection.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy aims to identify high-probability short-term entries based on a combination of the 20/50-period SMA crossover and a bearish engulfing candle confirmation, combined with RSI divergence and volume expansion. This approach targets early bearish shifts and aims to capture the initial leg of a downtrend while minimizing exposure to false signals by requiring a pullback to Fibonacci levels before entering. Given the current price action, the strategy would likely trigger an entry near 104,400, with a stop above 104,800 and a target at 103,500 based on the 61.8% retracement level.