Market Overview for Bitcoin/Eurite on 2025-10-07

• Price fluctuated between $106,521 and $107,325, with bearish momentum resuming after a midday rebound.
• Volatility expanded in early morning, followed by a contraction in the afternoon, signaling potential consolidation.
• Key resistance at $106,533–106,632 and support at $105,970–106,230 were tested multiple times, indicating high contestation.
• RSI and MACD showed mixed signals, suggesting uncertain momentum with no clear overbought or oversold readings.
• Volume and turnover spiked at 19:00 and 03:30 ET, coinciding with sharp price movements and divergences.

Bitcoin/Eurite (BTCEURI) opened at $106,777 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET and closed at $106,770 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET, with a high of $107,325 and a low of $104,364. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 14.34 BTC, and notional turnover was approximately $1.54 billion, reflecting moderate but contested trading activity.

Structure and key levels revealed two strong support zones: $106,230 and $105,970, both of which were tested and bounced off multiple times. On the resistance side, $106,533 acted as a crucial psychological threshold, with price failing to break through despite several attempts. A morning rally from $106,066 to $107,325 saw a high-volume engulfing candle at 19:00 ET, followed by a bearish reversal in the afternoon marked by a long upper wick and a doji near $106,533, suggesting bearish exhaustion or profit-taking.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed the 20-period EMA above the 50-period EMA in the early hours, supporting a bullish bias that weakened by midday. The 50-period SMA crossed below the 200-period SMA on the daily chart, indicating a bearish trend shift. Price has been oscillating between these key levels, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $106,447–$106,632 acting as a critical area of interest.

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction in the afternoon, with price sitting near the middle band, and a notable expansion in the early morning, where volatility spiked as price moved between the upper and lower bands. This volatility suggests increased activity from algorithmic or swing traders. RSI hovered between 45 and 60 for most of the day, with no clear overbought or oversold readings, while MACD lines fluctuated around the zero line, failing to produce a decisive crossover in either direction.

Volume distribution highlighted strong trading interest during the 19:00–20:00 ET and 03:30–04:00 ET windows. Notional turnover spiked during these intervals, with prices diverging on the 03:30–04:00 ET window, where volume surged but price moved downward, indicating potential bearish conviction. These moments of divergence and confirmation are key to gauging short-term momentum direction.

Fibonacci levels derived from the $106,230 to $107,325 swing showed a 38.2% retracement at $106,693 and a 61.8% at $106,468. The price found support at $106,230 and $105,970, both of which align with 78.6% and 88.6% Fibonacci levels from prior swings, suggesting potential consolidation and possible retests.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish engulfing candle with volume above the 24-hour average, targeting a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level as a stop-loss and a 1.272 extension as a profit target. Alternatively, short positions could be initiated on a bearish reversal doji with volume divergence, using key moving average crossovers (20 EMA below 50 EMA) as an additional filter. This approach would aim to capitalize on both trend continuation and reversal patterns within the $106,230–$107,325 range, where price has shown repeated contestation and retesting.