Market Overview: Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) 24-Hour Technical Summary

• Bitcoin/Dai declined sharply over 24 hours, with a major breakdown below key support levels.
• Momentum weakened significantly, with RSI nearing oversold territory and MACD in bearish divergence.
• Volatility expanded after a consolidation phase, with increased volume confirming bearish sentiment.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed near 119,000 DAI, signaling potential continuation of the decline.

The BTCDAI pair opened at 119,311.85 DAI on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET and closed at 111,892.3 DAI at 12:00 ET the following day. During this 24-hour window, the price reached a high of 119,573.81 DAI and fell to a low of 102,000.00 DAI. Total traded volume amounted to approximately 19.14 BTC, while notional turnover totaled around 2.24 million DAI.

The 15-minute OHLCV data shows a clear bearish bias, with a large bearish engulfing pattern forming around 119,000 DAI, signaling potential continuation of the downward move. Key support levels at 117,771.65 DAI and 116,239.59 DAI were tested and broken, while 115,000 DAI appears to be the next critical psychological level. Resistance levels near 118,200 DAI and 119,229.24 DAI failed to contain the sell pressure. The price has moved below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, confirming the bearish bias.

Structure & Formations

Notable patterns include a bearish engulfing pattern near 119,000 DAI and a potential bearish divergence forming at 117,000 DAI. A long lower shadow on the 17:30–18:00 ET candle suggests a brief attempt to recover, but the close remained bearish. The structure resembles a larger bearish trend with a potential target near 110,000 DAI.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has crossed below the signal line in a bearish crossover and continues to trend downward, reflecting weakening momentum. RSI has fallen into oversold territory at around 28 and has yet to show a convincing bullish reversal. This suggests the current bearish momentum may persist for a while longer unless a strong buying wave occurs.

Bollinger Bands

The price remains below the 20-period moving average and is trading near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a period of low volatility and bearish consolidation. A breakout to the downside would confirm a continuation of the bearish trend, while a retest of the middle or upper bands could trigger a countertrend bounce.

Volume & Turnover

Volume has increased sharply during the breakdown, confirming the bearish move. Notional turnover also spiked during the 21:15–21:45 ET period, as the price dropped from 114,252.88 DAI to 112,614.86 DAI. The volume and price action align in a bearish confirmation, with no signs of divergence to suggest a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the major 15-minute swing from 118,300 DAI to 119,573 DAI shows 38.2% at 118,877 DAI and 61.8% at 118,147 DAI. The price broke below the 61.8% level, suggesting a deeper correction into the 116,000 DAI area is possible. Daily Fibonacci levels on the 119,311.85 DAI to 111,892.3 DAI move indicate a potential target near 108,000 DAI.

The market appears to be in a short-term bearish phase, with strong downward momentum and low volatility suggesting a continuation of the trend. While a bounce off the 115,000 DAI level is possible, any countertrend move should be treated cautiously due to the overall bearish bias. Investors should closely monitor the 116,000 DAI area for potential further support tests.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy in question involves a mean-reversion approach based on RSI and Bollinger Bands. When the RSI falls below 30 and the price touches or crosses the lower Bollinger Band, a buy signal is triggered, assuming the 20-period moving average is trending upward. This setup was tested on BTCDAI over the past 90 days, with a stop-loss at 1.5% below entry and a take-profit target at 2.5% above entry. The hypothesis suggests that during periods of oversold conditions and low volatility, price retests the mean with a 60–65% success rate. Given the current market environment — where the price is near the lower Bollinger Band and RSI is near oversold levels — the setup could offer a potential short-term bounce opportunity, though the broader bearish trend remains intact. Investors should treat any retest of 115,000 DAI as a temporary countertrend trade rather than a reversal signal.