Market Overview for Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) - 24-Hour Technical Summary (2025-09-19)

• Price declined by 2.1% over 24 hours with a bearish close at 116,471.27
• RSI hit oversold levels and Bollinger Bands show tightening volatility
• Volume surged during early morning selloff but diverged from price later
• Key support at 116,300 and resistance at 117,100 show high retest likelihood
• Momentum indicators signal potential short-term rebound amid low volatility

Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) opened at 117,527.28 on 2025-09-18, hitting a high of 117,951.45 and a low of 115,565.37 before closing at 116,471.27 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour trading volume was 1.44 BTC, with a notional turnover of 166,794,700 DAI. Price moved in a broad bearish channel, with significant consolidation in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern reveals a bearish continuation bias. Key support levels are defined at 116,300 (strong) and 116,100 (medium), with resistance at 117,100 (psychological) and 117,650 (previous consolidation). A bearish engulfing pattern emerged during the early morning ET session, suggesting strong downward momentum. A doji appeared near the 116,500 level, signaling potential indecision. The price has been consolidating within a tight range below 116,600 in the final hours, indicating possible exhaustion of the current bearish wave.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both show a downward bias, with the 50-period line currently above the 20-period line, confirming a bearish bias in the short-term trend. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period moving average is at 116,800, and the 200-period is at 117,200, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The price is below both major moving averages, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend unless a strong reversal occurs.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has crossed below the signal line during the morning selloff, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram shows a slight expansion in bearish momentum during the 4:00–6:00 ET window but has since flattened, indicating waning pressure. RSI is currently at 28, hitting oversold territory, and may trigger a short-term bounce. However, the divergence between RSI and price during the final hours suggests potential exhaustion of the bearish move and a possible countertrend rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has been contracting in the final hours, as seen in the narrowing of the Bollinger Bands. The price has been trading near the lower band for most of the 24-hour period, reinforcing oversold conditions. A contraction in volatility is often a precursor to a breakout, and if RSI confirms a bullish reversal, a move toward the upper band could follow. Currently, the bands are set between 116,200 (lower) and 116,750 (upper), with the price near the bottom of the range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 4:00–5:00 ET window as price dropped below 116,800, confirming bearish pressure. However, after 7:00 ET, volume has remained subdued, suggesting reduced conviction in the current bearish trend. Notional turnover has mirrored the volume pattern, peaking during the morning selloff and decreasing in the afternoon. A divergence between price and turnover in the final hours suggests buyers may be entering the market quietly ahead of a potential reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key bearish swing from 117,951.45 to 115,565.37 shows that the 38.2% level is at 116,686 and the 61.8% level is at 116,199. The price has stabilized near the 61.8% retracement level in recent hours, which could act as a short-term support. A break below this level may target the 50% retracement at 116,462 or even the 38.2% level for a potential bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could target a countertrend reversal at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (116,199) using a RSI oversold trigger (below 30). A long entry would be placed with a stop just below the 116,100 support and a target at the 38.2% level (116,686). The MACD flat histogram and Bollinger Band contraction also support a reversal setup. A confirmed break above 116,686 could extend the target to the 117,100 resistance level, aligning with the Fibonacci projection.