Market Overview for Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) – 24-Hour Period Ending October 10, 2025

• Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) traded in a volatile range of 118,653.55 to 122,547.71, closing near 118,967.2 at 12:00 ET.
• A significant bearish reversal pattern emerged around 20:00 ET on October 9, with volume spiking during the drop.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions early, followed by a sharp decline to oversold territory, suggesting exhaustion in both trends.
• Bollinger Bands widened as price diverged, highlighting increased volatility and potential consolidation ahead.
• Total volume was 1.26 BTC, with turnover reaching $157,262.68 (notional DAI value).

BTCDAI opened at 121,110.00 at 12:00 ET–1 and reached a high of 122,547.71 before dropping to a low of 118,653.55, closing at 118,967.20 at 12:00 ET. Total volume traded was 1.26 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately $157,262.68. The price action reflected a bearish shift amid heightened volatility and volume surges, suggesting a potential shift in momentum.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged around the 119,000–119,500 range, with price finding a floor at 118,653.55. Resistance clustered between 121,000 and 122,000, where sharp sell-offs occurred multiple times. Notably, a bearish engulfing pattern developed at 19:00 ET on October 9, followed by a long lower shadow at 21:00 ET, indicating short-term bearish sentiment. A doji formed at 22:45 ET, suggesting indecision and a possible short-term reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed into bearish alignment in the early hours of October 10, reinforcing the downward bias. On a daily basis, the 50/100/200-period lines showed the price closing below all three, signaling a continuation of the bearish bias. However, the price may test the 50-period line for a potential bounce or continuation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover during the early sell-off, with a negative histogram widening as the drop progressed. RSI peaked above 70 at the session’s high, signaling overbought conditions before falling sharply below 30 by the end of the period, suggesting oversold territory. The momentum appears to be shifting from exhaustion to a potential rebound, though confirmation may require a breakout above the 120,000 level.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the sharp sell-off, pushing price to the lower band for several periods, including between 20:15 ET and 21:45 ET. A contraction was observed around 22:30 ET, hinting at a potential breakout or reversal. Price remained well below the middle band for most of the session, indicating a strong bearish bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 20:00–21:00 ET period, with over 0.2 BTC traded during the drop from 121,299.98 to 120,620.38. Turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking at 0.05 BTC between 02:45 ET and 03:00 ET. The divergence between volume and price during the final hours suggests waning conviction in the bearish move, with a potential short-term rebound in view.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 121,110.00 to 122,547.71 high, the 61.8% retracement level sits around 120,730, where a temporary bounce occurred. The daily swing from 121,110.00 to 118,653.55 saw the price testing the 38.2% retracement level of ~120,000 before continuing lower. A sustained close above 120,000 could see retests of the 121,000–121,500 range.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish engulfing pattern at 19:00 ET and the long lower shadow at 21:00 ET could serve as entry triggers for a short-term bearish strategy, targeting the 119,000–118,500 range. A stop-loss above 121,000 would have limited exposure if the price resumed the upward trend. Given the MACD and RSI divergence, a trailing stop could be used to lock in gains as volatility contracts and the price approaches the 120,000 level.