Market Overview for Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) – 24-Hour Period Ending 2025-09-20 12:00 ET

• Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) traded in a volatile range with a notable bearish reversal in the midday ET session.
• Key resistance at ~116,000 DAI held, but failed to hold during late afternoon ET recovery.
• Volume spiked during sharp declines and retraced with lower activity in the last 6 hours.
• RSI suggests moderate overbought levels, while MACD shows converging bullish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands contracted during consolidation, followed by a breakout to the upside.

Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) opened the 24-hour period at 115,817.53 DAI on 2025-09-19 12:00 ET and closed at 115,965.86 DAI at 12:00 ET the following day. The price reached a high of 116,203.01 DAI and a low of 115,368.0 DAI. Total volume for the 24-hour period was approximately 1.89 BTC, with notional turnover of ~217,795,753 DAI.

The price action over the 24-hour period was defined by two distinct phases: a prolonged bearish consolidation and a late-day recovery attempt. The initial bearish wave from 16:00–18:45 ET saw the price fall from ~116,100 DAI to ~115,400 DAI, forming a bearish flag pattern. A sharp bearish engulfing candle on the 15-minute chart at 18:45 ET marked a key reversal point, though subsequent recovery lacked conviction. By the final hours, a bullish counter-trend move emerged with volume increasing, suggesting a possible short-term bottoming process.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels held at 115,400 and 115,200 DAI, with resistance found at 116,000 and 116,100 DAI. The 15-minute chart displayed a series of bearish engulfing and hammer patterns from 16:00–18:45 ET, followed by a large bullish counter-attack candle at 06:00–06:15 ET. The recovery lacked confirmation from volume, suggesting mixed sentiment. A potential bullish continuation pattern may be forming near 116,100 DAI if resistance can be overcome with strong volume.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed over during the early morning hours, indicating a possible shift in momentum. The 50-period SMA currently sits near 115,800 DAI, with the price holding above it in the final hours of the period. Daily chart indicators (50, 100, and 200-period SMAs) show a flattening trend, suggesting short-term indecision, though the price remains above the 200-period SMA for the week, indicating a bullish bias over the longer term.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed bearish divergence during the midday ET decline, with the histogram contracting as the price fell to its 24-hour low. A subsequent bullish crossover occurred after 06:00 ET, aligning with the price recovery. RSI peaked at ~61 during the late morning, suggesting overbought conditions, though it remained below the 70 threshold. A retracement into the 50–55 range may indicate a potential retest of key resistance levels.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted between 21:00–03:00 ET, followed by a sharp price expansion toward the upper band at 06:00–08:00 ET. The price currently sits just below the upper band, suggesting elevated volatility and the possibility of a continuation or pullback. The contraction phase indicated a period of consolidation, while the expansion suggests traders may be positioning for a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bearish phase with a peak of ~0.85 BTC at 18:45 ET, followed by a steady decline in the afternoon and evening. A moderate increase in volume during the late-night and early morning hours accompanied the recovery move. Notional turnover was highest during the bearish move (~98 million DAI) and lowest during the consolidation phase (~13 million DAI). This suggests strong bearish conviction but weaker follow-through in the bullish direction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the 15-minute swing low at 115,368 to the high at 116,203 show 38.2% (~115,750) and 61.8% (~115,450) levels as key areas of interest. The price bounced near the 50% and 61.8% levels during the consolidation phase, suggesting a possible short-term support area. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level for the recent week-long downtrend is near 115,500 DAI, which may serve as a critical threshold in the coming 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy is based on the following rules: a long entry is triggered when the 50-period EMA crosses above the 100-period EMA and the RSI is below 40 (oversold zone), with a stop-loss placed below the nearest support level. A short exit is triggered when the EMA cross diverges or when RSI breaches 70 (overbought). During the 24-hour period, the 50/100 EMA crossover occurred at 06:00–06:30 ET, coinciding with a RSI reading of ~51. This suggests the strategy may have entered a long position during the early morning recovery phase. A stop-loss would have been triggered if the price had retested the 115,500 level. The strategy’s effectiveness hinges on RSI and EMA alignment, with volume acting as a confirmation signal.