Market Overview for Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) on 2025-11-09

• BTCDAI traded in a wide range of 101623.48–102437.53, closing at 101863.22.
• Strong momentum seen in early hours, followed by bearish consolidation.
• Notable volume spikes and a potential exhaustion pattern near the 24H high.

Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) opened at 101760.02 on 2025-11-08 at 17:00 ET and reached a 24-hour high of 102437.53 before closing at 101863.22. Total volume amounted to 1.97 BTC, with a turnover of approximately 201,193.35 DAI. Price action showed a volatile but ultimately range-bound session, with a bearish close near the middle of the 24-hour range.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a broad trading range between key support at 101623.48 and resistance at 102437.53. A bearish engulfing pattern developed during the late evening (ET) as price dropped from 102229.66 to 101787.74 in a single 30-minute window. Several doji and long lower shadows indicated indecision and potential exhaustion near the high. The 101914.48 level appears to be a psychological pivot where the price has bounced multiple times.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs show a bearish cross after 20:30 ET, indicating a shift in trend. The 50-period SMA is still above the price, but the 20-period SMA has crossed below it. On the daily chart, the 50 and 200-period SMAs are aligned with the 101900–101950 zone, which now appears to be a critical level for near-term direction. A break below this would confirm a bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a bearish divergence in the late session, with a contraction in bullish momentum following earlier bullish surges. The RSI reached 65 during the morning peak and has since fallen to 49.3 at the close, suggesting a neutral to bearish bias. While not in overbought territory, the RSI may indicate a loss of bullish momentum and a potential pullback into oversold levels.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the early evening as the price tested the upper Bollinger Band, reaching 102437.53. After that, volatility contracted as price moved back into the central band. The closing price of 101863.22 is well within the lower half of the bands, indicating a consolidation phase. A break above the upper band would signal renewed bullish momentum, while a drop below the lower band could indicate a bearish correction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the early evening hours, with a notable 15-minute candle (19:00–19:15 ET) showing 0.01232 BTC traded at a turnover of 12,480.93 DAI. This volume was followed by a sharp drop in price, suggesting selling pressure emerged after the peak. The low volume at the close indicates reduced conviction, and a divergence between price and turnover suggests further consolidation may be in store.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 101623.48–102437.53 swing, the 61.8% level is at 102045.36 and is currently acting as resistance. The 50% level is at 101980.50, which has been tested multiple times. On a longer-term basis, the 2025-11-08 swing from 101623.48 to 102437.53 has a 38.2% retracement at 101990.00, which may offer support or resistance in the coming 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest of a strategy based on the MACD Death Cross—where the MACD line crosses below the signal line—revealed underperformance between 2022 and the present. In this case, BTCDAI displayed a bearish MACD crossover in the late evening session, which was followed by a sharp decline in price. However, such signals have historically led to weak returns, especially in fast-moving crypto assets. This highlights the importance of using additional confirmation tools, such as volume and RSI divergence, rather than relying solely on the Death Cross as a buy signal.