Market Overview for Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) on 2025-11-05

Summary
• Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) declined in early trade but staged a strong recovery after 20:00 ET.
• Key support tested at 99,314.3 with subsequent rejection into a bullish reversal pattern.
• Rising volume and price confirm the reversal signal into the final 15-minute candle.

Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) opened at 102,791.48 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 101,811.81 by the same time on 2025-11-05. During the 24-hour period, the pair traded as high as 102,229.66 and as low as 99,080.95. Total volume amounted to 12.25 BTC with a notional turnover of 1.23 million DAI (using BTCDAI prices). The 15-minute OHLCV data highlights a bearish opening followed by a sharp recovery into the final hours of the 24-hour window.

Structure & Formations

The initial bearish trend was characterized by a series of declining lower wicks and bearish engulfing patterns from 17:00–19:45 ET. A pivot point was established at 99,314.3, followed by a strong bullish reversal pattern between 20:00–03:00 ET, including a morning star and bullish engulfing on the hour. A doji appeared at 03:45 ET, signaling a potential pause in the upward move. Key support levels included 99,314.3 and 100,000, while resistance was noted at 101,229.53 and 101,787.74.

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum appears to be shifting, with the 20-period 15-minute EMA turning bullish in the final hours of the session. The 50-period EMA remained bearish early on but began to cross the 20-period line, suggesting a potential shift in bias. Longer-term, the 50, 100, and 200-day averages are not readily apparent from the 15-minute dataset, but daily chart analysis would be required for confirmation.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed into positive territory after 20:00 ET, reinforcing the bullish reversal. The RSI moved above 50 at the same time and approached overbought territory (~65) by 03:00 ET, suggesting a strong but not extreme move. Momentum remains elevated, with a positive divergence appearing between price and RSI in the final hour of the session.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the early bearish phase and then contracted sharply as price found support. By 20:00 ET, the bands widened again with BTCDAI closing near the upper band by 03:00 ET. The narrowing of the bands before 20:00 ET hinted at the potential for a breakout, which was confirmed in the subsequent hours.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume was modest in the early bearish phase but increased notably with the reversal, peaking at 0.458 BTC around 20:00 ET. The 15-minute period between 22:45–23:00 ET saw the highest price action and a corresponding spike in turnover. Volume and price were aligned in the bullish phase, increasing confidence in the reversal pattern.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements were applied to the major swing from 102,791.48 to 99,080.95. The 38.2% level (~101,000) and 61.8% level (~101,600) were both closely tested during the recovery. The 15-minute retracements supported the bullish bias, with price finding strong support at the 61.8% level and extending into the 78.6% level by 03:00 ET.

Backtest Hypothesis

The reversal patterns observed in this 24-hour session align with potential entries for a candle-based trading strategy, such as the CDLHAMMER pattern. While the current dataset does not include a proxy for the “HOLD.P” ticker or equity-based data, the BTCDAI chart provides a relevant example of how hammer patterns—characterized by a long lower shadow and small real body—can be used to identify potential bullish reversals. Once the correct ticker symbol is confirmed for the equity-based test, a 3-day backtest using the CDLHAMMER indicator from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-05 could provide empirical insight into the strategy’s viability in different market environments.