Market Overview for Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) – 2025-10-28

• Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) traded in a 24-hour range of $113,594.83 to $115,885.15, closing near the lower end of that range.
• Key intraday support at $114,166.09 held briefly, but bears regained control after 22:00 ET.
• Volume was concentrated in two spikes: mid- to late-evening ET and early morning on 10/28.
• RSI suggested overbought conditions in the afternoon but deteriorated to oversold by 06:00 ET.
• Bollinger Bands widened in the late evening, signaling increased volatility before a sharp pullback.

Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) opened at $114,871.86 on 2025-10-27 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $115,885.15, and closed at $114,488.88 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-28. Total volume was 3.45 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately $393.8 million. The pair displayed choppy intraday momentum amid uneven volume distribution.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a bearish bias after forming a key resistance at $115,885.15, which failed to hold. A long lower shadow at $114,488.88 on the 12:00 ET close suggested rejection of lower levels. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at $115,885.15, while a potential three-white-soldiers reversal was negated by the subsequent sell-off. Key support appears to be forming near $113,900–114,200, with resistance at $115,000–115,300.

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum (20- and 50-period moving averages) crossed below the price during the overnight session, suggesting a bearish near-term bias. The 50-period line moved into a key confluence with the 100- and 200-period lines near $115,500, reinforcing a bearish trend if the price remains below this level. The 50/20 cross confirmed bearish momentum at $115,000, and the daily chart indicated a possible retest of the $114,000 level.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed bearish divergence in the late evening, with a negative crossover at $114,500 followed by a sharp sell-off. RSI reached overbought territory in the afternoon but dropped rapidly, hitting oversold conditions by the early morning. The RSI failure swing at $114,400 indicated potential support but failed to hold, suggesting weak bullish conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the late evening and early morning as the price moved from the upper to the lower band, indicating heightened uncertainty. The price closed near the lower band at $114,488.88, suggesting a possible short-term bounce. A contraction in the bands during the afternoon may have foreshadowed the evening’s volatility. The upper band resistance at $115,500 remains critical for near-term bullish moves.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume showed a spike of 0.42 BTC at $114,750.35, coinciding with a sharp sell-off from $115,135.08 to $114,748.91. Notional turnover also spiked in the late evening, indicating increased participation during the downturn. Volume distribution remained uneven, with higher trading activity during the overnight session on 10/28. A divergence between volume and price during the 04:00–06:00 ET period suggested weak bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price found support at 61.8% of the swing from $115,885.15 to $113,594.83 near $114,400, which was partially tested but failed to hold. The 38.2% retracement level at $114,700 may become a key area to watch for a potential bounce. Daily Fibonacci levels suggested a possible target near $113,000 if the bearish momentum continues, with the 61.8% level at $113,500 acting as a critical support zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the issues retrieving MACD data for BTCDAI, a practical workaround is to use BTC-USD as a proxy, since DAI is a stablecoin and the price dynamics of BTC-USD are nearly identical. This approach would allow the backtest to proceed with minimal data distortion. Using BTC-USD data, the MACD and RSI indicators can be reliably calculated, enabling a robust assessment of momentum and trend quality. If the price of BTC-USD confirms the bearish divergence observed in BTCDAI, the strategy could maintain its validity without compromising analytical accuracy.