Market Overview: Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) on 2025-10-07

• Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) closed lower at 124,677.96 DAI, with a 24-hour low of 121,425.11 DAI.
• Price action showed a bearish bias with a massive 15-minute candle break from 125,224.9 to 124,500.18.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions, while Bollinger Bands narrowed, suggesting potential volatility ahead.
• Volume surged during sharp declines, confirming bearish momentum and lack of buyer support.
• Fibonacci levels and key support at 123,000 DAI are now critical for near-term trend clarity.

Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) opened at 125,145.67 DAI at 12:00 ET – 1 and closed at 124,677.96 DAI at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 126,270.84 DAI and a low of 121,425.11 DAI. Total volume was 1.83 BTC, and notional turnover amounted to approximately 227,800,000 DAI.

Structure & Formations

The BTCDAI pair exhibited a strong bearish structure over the last 24 hours, with a sharp breakdown from 125,800 DAI to 123,963.99 DAI. A large 15-minute candle on 19:45 ET (2025-10-06) formed a bearish engulfing pattern, confirming a shift in sentiment. A doji formed at 05:45 ET (2025-10-07), indicating a brief consolidation, but was quickly rejected downward. Key support levels emerged at 123,000 DAI and 121,500 DAI, while resistance remains at 124,800 DAI and 125,500 DAI.

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum on the 15-minute chart showed price closing below both 20 EMA and 50 EMA lines, reinforcing bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50 EMA is at 125,100 DAI, the 100 EMA at 124,800 DAI, and the 200 EMA at 124,300 DAI, suggesting price is under pressure. The convergence of these moving averages may signal a potential pivot point if a rebound occurs.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line, indicating a bearish crossover, while the histogram displayed a consistent contraction of bullish momentum. RSI bottomed at 28, signaling oversold conditions. However, the divergence between RSI and price during the 03:00–04:00 ET (2025-10-07) session suggests a potential false rebound. RSI may need to hold above 35 to validate any short-term recovery.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a noticeable contraction in the 23:00–00:00 ET (2025-10-06) window, indicating a period of consolidation. Price has since broken below the lower band, signaling a potential continuation of the downward move. A retest of the upper band near 125,500 DAI would be critical for any bullish reversal, but the current volatility suggests a continuation of the bearish trend is more likely.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key bearish moves, especially during the 19:45 ET and 15:45 ET candles, confirming strong selling pressure. Notional turnover mirrored these moves, showing no significant divergence. However, during the 05:45 ET doji, turnover remained flat while price moved down slightly, suggesting a lack of conviction in the bearish move. Overall, the volume profile supports a continuation of the downward trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 125,800–123,963.99 swing on the 15-minute chart, key levels include 124,800 DAI (61.8%), 124,600 DAI (50%), and 124,400 DAI (38.2%). The daily swing from 126,270.84 to 121,425.11 shows a major 61.8% retracement at 124,000 DAI, which could serve as a critical support or pivot zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy involves entering long positions when price closes above the 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss below the recent 15-minute swing low. Given the recent bearish momentum and price below key moving averages, the strategy would likely avoid long entries but could consider shorting on confirmed breakouts below Fibonacci support levels. The current price behavior suggests that such a strategy may be more effective in a short-biased setup rather than long-biased over the next 24 hours, particularly if price remains below 124,800 DAI.