Market Overview for Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) – 2025-10-03

• Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) surged to a 24-hour high of 122,385.9 before consolidating near 122,000.
• Price broke above a key resistance zone formed near 120,400–120,700 on strong volume and bullish momentum.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions, while volatility remains elevated on expanding Bollinger Bands.
• Turnover spiked over $50 million during the 15:45–16:00 ET rally, confirming the breakout.

Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) opened at 119,483.7 on October 2, 2025, and surged to a high of 122,385.9 before closing at 122,385.9 at 12:00 ET on October 3. The 24-hour volume totaled 1.456 BTC, with notional turnover of ~$177,750,000 (based on Dai value of 1). Price action displayed a bullish trend, punctuated by a strong 15:45 ET candle that pushed BTCDAI above 121,923.86.

Key structure includes a bullish engulfing pattern on the 19:30–19:45 ET candle, confirming a shift in momentum from bearish to bullish. A bullish divergence in volume and price emerged during the 15:45–16:00 ET rally, as price surged while volume remained relatively high. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are currently bullish, with price above both. On a daily chart, price remains above its 50- and 200-day moving averages, indicating sustained bullish bias.

MACD crossed above zero with strong momentum, suggesting continued upward bias. The 14-period RSI reached 68–70 during the peak rally, entering overbought territory, which may trigger short-term pullbacks. Bollinger Bands are wide, reflecting high volatility, with price consistently above the 20-period middle band. A notable contraction occurred just before the breakout, hinting at a reversal setup.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the key 119,483.7–122,385.9 rally suggest 61.8% (120,913.13) and 78.6% (121,592.8) as potential zones to watch for consolidation. The 38.2% level at 120,368.09 has already been tested. A breakdown below 120,368.09 could invite retesting of the 119,703.27–119,941.45 range as a new support cluster. The 15-minute chart shows a strong push above the 121,000–121,500 range, which may serve as a new reference for short-term retracements.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described strategy focuses on breakout setups confirmed by bullish candlestick patterns and divergence in volume. A potential backtest could be designed using the following logic: enter long on a close above the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bullish engulfing pattern and an increase in volume above the 20-period average. Exit on a close below the 50-period moving average or when RSI exceeds 70. Using the provided data, such a system would have captured the 19:45–19:30 ET surge and held through the rally into 15:45 ET. A trailing stop just below the 120,913.13 Fibonacci level could have locked in gains while allowing for further upside. This setup may offer a viable edge in a trending market but should be tested over multiple cycles to assess risk and reward.