Market Overview for Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) on 2025-10-03

• Price surged from 119,483.7 to 121,096.65 before consolidating.
• High volatility seen with a 15-minute range exceeding 3,000 DAI.
• Volume spiked during the 19:15–19:30 ET rally, confirming bullish sentiment.
• RSI reached overbought territory, signaling potential for a pullback.
• Price remains above key 20-period MA, indicating bullish momentum.

Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) opened at 119,483.7 and reached an intraday high of 121,096.65 before closing at 120,143.22 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded between 119,483.7 and 121,096.65 over the past 24 hours, with a total volume of 2.106 DAI and a notional turnover of ~254 million DAI.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a bullish breakout in the 19:15–19:30 ET period, forming a strong engulfing pattern. A bearish reversal pattern (evening star) emerged around 21:45–22:15 ET as price pulled back to 120,375.5. Support levels were identified at 119,600 and 118,800, with the 20-period MA acting as a dynamic support. A key resistance area appears at 121,500, where price previously failed to close above.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA (119,700) and 50-period MA (119,400) trended upward, supporting the current bullish momentum. On the daily chart, BTCDAI closed above the 50- and 200-period MAs, reinforcing the short- to medium-term bullish bias. A crossover of the 50-period MA above the 20-period MA may signal a stronger uptrend continuation.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed above the signal line around 19:00 ET, confirming the bullish momentum. RSI surged into overbought territory (75–80) during the mid-evening rally, suggesting a potential pullback. However, as long as RSI remains above 50 and MACD holds above zero, the bulls retain control. A drop below 60 on RSI could trigger a correction toward the 20-period MA.

Bollinger Bands

BTCDAI traded in a wide Bollinger Band range, indicating heightened volatility. Price reached the upper band during the 19:15–19:30 ET rally before retracing toward the midline. A sustained close above the upper band may confirm a breakout, while a break below the lower band could signal a bearish correction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 19:15–19:45 ET rally, confirming the strength of the bullish move. The 19:15–19:30 ET 15-minute candle alone accounted for 0.157 DAI of volume (7.5% of total). Notional turnover also spiked during this period, aligning with price movement. However, a divergence in volume occurred between 21:30–22:30 ET as price declined but volume remained low, suggesting weakening bearish pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent swing low (119,483.7) and swing high (121,096.65), key levels to watch are 38.2% at 120,248 and 61.8% at 119,879. Price closed near the 50% retracement level (120,290), which may act as a short-term pivot. A break above the 38.2% level could target 120,800, whereas a retest of 61.8% may trigger a correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a long position when BTCDAI closes above the 20-period MA and RSI crosses above 55, with a stop loss placed at the 50-period MA. The exit is triggered when RSI falls below 55 or price breaks below the 50-period MA. Given today’s strong bullish momentum and RSI above 60, the strategy would have triggered an entry around 19:15 ET. While the strategy appears well-aligned with the morning’s price action, the high volatility and overbought RSI suggest caution, as a pullback could negate the entry signal in the next 24 hours.