Market Overview for Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) – 2025-09-26

• BTCDAI traded in a bearish consolidation, forming key support at 108,800–109,000 DAI after an intraday drop from 111,760.
• Price failed to hold above 110,000, triggering a 6.3% pullback, with RSI entering oversold territory around 28.
• Volatility spiked mid-day as Bollinger Bands expanded, signaling potential range extension or breakout.
• Volume was concentrated in the 18:00–19:45 ET window, yet price closed near session lows amid divergent turnover.
• No strong bullish momentum observed, with MACD trending lower and Fibonacci retracements aligning with 109,000 as probable floor.

Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) opened at 111,092 DAI on 2025-09-25 12:00 ET, reached a high of 111,760 DAI, and closed the 24-hour session at 109,175 DAI on 2025-09-26 12:00 ET. Total traded volume amounted to 2.67 DAI, with a notional turnover of 293,126,234 DAI.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a distinct bearish consolidation forming after a brief bullish push mid-day. A key support level emerged between 108,800–109,000 DAI, where price found a temporary floor after a sharp decline from 111,760 DAI. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible at 111,416 DAI, followed by a doji at 109,107 DAI, signaling indecision. The price remains below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating a bearish bias for the short term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were around 111,100 DAI and 110,800 DAI, respectively, both above the current close. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average sits at approximately 110,000 DAI, the 100-period at 109,700 DAI, and the 200-period at 109,500 DAI, suggesting a bearish trend continuation. The price may struggle to close above the 50-period daily MA without a reversal in sentiment.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained negative throughout the session, with a bearish crossover in the afternoon as momentum diverged from price during the rally. The RSI bottomed out near 28 around 21:30 ET, indicating oversold conditions and the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the failure of RSI to hold above 30 and the lack of strong follow-through buying suggests that bullish continuation may be limited.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after the price drop from 111,760 to 109,175 DAI, reflecting increased volatility. The price closed near the lower band at 109,175 DAI, which may trigger a rebound or a test of the 108,800 DAI support level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was unevenly distributed, with the majority of the 2.67 DAI traded in the 18:00–19:45 ET window. This period saw the price decline sharply, yet turnover was not proportionately high, suggesting possible institutional selling or algorithmic liquidation. Price and turnover diverged in the latter part of the session as trading activity slowed, with price continuing to fall. This divergence may indicate weak conviction in the current trend and the potential for a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute move from 111,760 DAI to 109,175 DAI, the 38.2% retracement aligns with 110,000 DAI and the 61.8% retracement with 109,400 DAI. The price appears to be consolidating near the 61.8% level, and a break above 109,400 DAI could trigger a retest of the 110,000 DAI level. Conversely, a breakdown below the 109,000 DAI level may accelerate the move toward 108,800 DAI, the next key support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy description suggests a mean-reversion approach using MACD crossover and RSI levels. Given the recent bearish momentum and oversold RSI, a buy signal might be triggered if the RSI rebounds above 30 and the MACD shows a bullish crossover. However, this would require confirmation that the price holds above the 109,000 DAI level, as seen in the Fibonacci analysis. A sell signal might be activated if the price breaks below 108,800 DAI, aligning with the Fibonacci and Bollinger Band support zones. This strategy could be optimized by incorporating volume confirmation and divergence checks to filter false signals.