Market Overview for Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) on 2025-09-25

• Price declined 2.4% on the 24-hour timeframe, closing near session lows.
• Key support tested at $111,388.85 after forming a bearish engulfing pattern.
• Momentum weakened significantly, with RSI near oversold territory.
• Volatility surged early in the session, then compressed as pressure mounted.
• Turnover spiked twice mid-day but failed to confirm bullish follow-through.

Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) opened at $113,417.17 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at $111,388.85 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, trading between $113,861.74 and $111,122.9. Total traded volume was 13.49 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately $1.55 million.

The price action displayed a bearish reversal structure, particularly on the 15-minute chart between 02:30 and 03:30 ET, where a large bearish engulfing candle confirmed weakening sentiment. Key support levels were evident around the $111,388.85 and $110,900.0 thresholds, while resistance held early at $113,600 and above. The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed below the 50-period line (death cross), while the 50-day and 200-day moving averages remained bearish on the daily chart.

MACD diverged from price action late in the session, showing a bearish crossover in the negative territory, while RSI hit 30, suggesting oversold conditions. Bollinger Bands tightened toward the end of the session, indicating potential for a breakout or breakdown, with price settling near the lower band. Volume surged between 02:30 and 03:30 ET, yet failed to confirm a bounce back above the $112,000 level, signaling distribution.

Fibonacci retracements on the 15-minute move from $113,861.74 to $111,122.9 showed a 61.8% level at $111,850.0, a critical area to watch for a potential bounce. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level of the recent bearish leg is near $110,500, which could see aggressive bear pressure. The price is likely to test this support, but a break below it could accelerate the downward trend.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest strategy involves entering short positions on a bearish engulfing pattern, confirmed by a MACD bearish crossover and RSI dipping below 30. A stop-loss is placed above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, while the target is aligned with the 38.2% level. Given the recent structure and confirmed bearish momentum, the strategy may have had a high success rate in the last 24 hours. However, the consolidation near the lower Bollinger Band suggests a potential reversal, which may challenge the validity of the pattern-based entry.