Market Overview for Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) – 2025-09-24

• Price opened at 113,006.46 and closed near 113,417.17, with a 15-minute high of 113,976.15 and a low of 111,604.86.
• A bearish breakdown attempt below 111,900 was rejected, showing strong support in the 111,700–112,000 range.
• RSI hit oversold conditions twice, indicating potential for a rebound, though momentum remains mixed.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the 15-minute timeframe, with price swinging over 8,000 DAI in 24 hours.
• Turnover spiked during key price swings, especially after 21:00 ET, signaling heightened market participation.

Price Action and Trading Range

Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) opened at 113,006.46 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET and closed near 113,417.17 at the same time the following day. The 24-hour range saw a high of 113,976.15 and a low of 111,604.86, indicating considerable volatility. The total volume traded over 15-minute intervals was 12.64265 DAI, with a notional turnover of approximately $1.445 billion (assuming $1 = 1 DAI). Price action shows a consolidation phase after an initial bearish thrust, with buyers stepping in around key support levels in the 111,700–112,000 range.

Support and Resistance

Key support levels were tested and held near 111,700 and 112,000 DAI, particularly after the initial sell-off. A notable bullish reversal pattern, a hammer candle, appeared around 111,954.7 during the overnight session. Resistance is now forming at 113,500–113,700 DAI, with several candlesticks failing to break beyond this range. A potential break above 113,900 could trigger further gains, while a close below 112,000 may reignite bearish sentiment.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in bullish alignment, with the 20 MA sitting above the 50 MA, suggesting short-term strength. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 MA lines are converging, but price remains above all three, indicating a longer-term bullish bias.

Momentum is mixed. The 12/26 MACD histogram has shown divergence between price and momentum at key turning points, especially after the 111,900 support level. RSI reached oversold levels below 30 twice during the 24-hour period, suggesting potential for a bounce, although overbought conditions have yet to materialize, indicating that the move higher may remain constrained in the near term.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

The Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the trading session, with the upper band reaching 113,976.15 and the lower band dropping to 111,604.86. Price moved between the bands for most of the session, with a few instances near the upper edge suggesting heightened volatility. The 15-minute chart displayed a volatility contraction period during the overnight hours, with price consolidating within a tight range before breaking out to the upside in the morning.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Trading volume and turnover surged during the key price swings, particularly after 21:00 ET and in the early morning hours. The volume-to-price divergence during the 21:00–22:00 ET period suggests that buyers were not entirely in control of the move lower, possibly indicating a short-covering rally. Turnover increased by over 50% in the final six hours of the 24-hour period, indicating a buildup of activity ahead of the close.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart identified key support at 112,430 and 111,940, both of which were tested during the session. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement level at 112,320 held during the early hours of the session, but the price has since moved above that level. These levels may act as pivot zones in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical setup and observed price behavior, a potential backtesting strategy could be to enter long positions on a close above the 113,500–113,700 DAI resistance zone, using a tight stop just below the 113,300 DAI level. A trailing stop could be initiated after a breakout confirmation to capture further upside. This approach aligns with the observed momentum divergence and the rejection of key support levels earlier in the session. Given the volatility observed in the 15-minute timeframe, a time-weighted average price (TWAP) strategy could be used to manage exposure during choppy or range-bound conditions.