Market Overview for Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) on 2025-09-22

• Price fell 2.2% in 24 hours amid prolonged bearish momentum and declining volume.
• Key support at 112,500 DAI tested, while resistance remains stalled near 115,700 DAI.
• MACD and RSI confirmed bearish divergence and oversold territory near 112,700 DAI.
• Volatility expanded significantly before narrowing, suggesting a potential consolidation phase.

The Bitcoin/Dai pair opened at 115,630.82 DAI on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 112,898.18 DAI at the same time on 2025-09-22. The 24-hour high and low were 115,747.01 DAI and 112,100.0 DAI, respectively. Total volume was 0.54324 BTC, and notional turnover amounted to approximately 61,335,000 DAI. The price action reflects a sharp bearish reversal with key patterns like a bearish engulfing near 115,600 DAI and a long lower shadow in the early morning.

Structure & Formations

Price action reveals two distinct bearish phases: the first from 115,700 to 114,400 DAI and the second from 114,500 to 112,100 DAI. A critical support level appears to be forming near 112,500 DAI, where the price found a temporary floor. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed at 16:00 ET on 2025-09-21, signaling a shift in sentiment. A doji near 112,800 DAI on 2025-09-22 suggests indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages are in a bearish crossover, with price below both. On the daily scale, the 50-period MA is near 114,000 DAI, the 100-period near 113,800, and the 200-period near 113,200 DAI. Price currently sits below all, reinforcing the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram expanded into bearish territory during the afternoon of 2025-09-21 and remained negative through the session. RSI has dropped into oversold territory around 28. A bearish divergence is evident, where price made a lower low while RSI bottomed near 26, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the initial sell-off, with price testing the lower band around 112,100 DAI. Following a sharp rebound, the bands have started to contract, indicating a possible period of consolidation. Price is currently near the middle band, suggesting equilibrium between bullish and bearish forces.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the afternoon and evening hours of 2025-09-21, peaking near 0.54324 BTC when price hit 112,598.4 DAI. However, volume has since declined sharply, with little follow-through into the final hours. This divergence between price and volume could signal a weakening bearish impetus, although confirmation remains pending.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from 115,700 to 112,100 DAI, key levels at 114,100 DAI (38.2%) and 113,000 DAI (61.8%) were tested. Price appears to have found support near 112,500 DAI, a level that aligns with a 76.4% retracement of the larger daily move.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve shorting BTCDAI on a break below a 15-minute Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level (113,000 DAI) with a stop above the 38.2% level (114,100 DAI), and exiting the position when RSI re-enters neutral territory (~50) or when price closes above the 20-period MA. Given the recent bearish engulfing pattern and RSI divergence, this setup appears favorable for a short-term bearish trade, though it should be used with caution as volatility remains high.

Price may test 112,500 DAI as a key support in the next 24 hours, with a potential rebound into 113,500 DAI if buyers step in. However, prolonged bearish momentum could push BTCDAI toward 111,000 DAI. Investors should remain cautious of unexpected macro events and potential order flow imbalances.