Market Overview for Bitcoin/Dai (BTCDAI) – 2025-09-15

• BTCDAI traded in a volatile range, breaking above 115,000 before pulling back to close near 114,870.
• A long lower shadow and a bearish engulfing pattern formed near the session high, suggesting bearish pressure.
• Volume spiked during key price moves, confirming short-term volatility but showing divergence as price declined.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought conditions mid-session, followed by bearish momentum and a possible trend reversal.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly, showing heightened volatility, while the price closed near the lower band.

Bitcoin/Dai opened at 115,271.39 DAI (12:00 ET − 1), surged to a high of 116,673.49 DAI, then declined to close at 114,870.10 DAI (12:00 ET) on the 24-hour chart. Total volume amounted to 0.81077 BTC, with a turnover of approximately 94,516,320 DAI, signaling active participation.

The 15-minute chart revealed multiple price swings, including a bullish breakout above 116,000 followed by a sharp pullback. A bearish engulfing pattern developed after a failed attempt to hold above 116,481.98, and the price eventually consolidated into a wide range. RSI reached overbought territory (70+) during the peak move, while MACD crossed into negative territory, suggesting a potential bearish reversal. Bollinger Bands expanded with the price near the lower band, indicating a period of re-entry into a tighter range.

Structure & Formations

Price tested multiple resistance levels throughout the day, including 116,481.98 and 116,673.49, both of which failed to hold. The 115,500–116,000 zone emerged as a key support/resistance cluster. A doji formed at 115,527.37, signaling indecision. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at the close of the 116,481.98 session high, indicating rejection of higher prices. The price ultimately found support near 114,870 DAI, forming a potential base for near-term consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages (MAs) were in bullish alignment until mid-session, when the 50 MA crossed above the 20 MA, forming a bearish "death cross" signal. The 20 MA currently sits at 115,500, while the 50 MA is at 115,750. On a daily chart (not provided in full), the 50/100/200 EMA lines suggest a more neutral to bearish bias, with price closing below the 200 MA.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative after a brief bullish phase, confirming bearish momentum. A bearish crossover occurred at around 116,481.98, and the histogram has remained below zero since. RSI peaked at 72 mid-session before falling below 50, signaling a shift in momentum. While not yet oversold (RSI near 44), the indicator remains bearish.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked during the 115,000–116,600 rally, with the bands widening significantly. After the sell-off, the bands began to contract slightly, suggesting a possible pause in the volatility. The price closed near the lower band (114,870 DAI), which may trigger a retest of the 115,200–115,400 range for potential support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key price moves: the breakout above 115,000 and the subsequent pullback below 114,870. However, volume during the decline was higher than during the rally, signaling bearish confirmation. Turnover also increased during the late-night sell-off, aligning with the bearish divergence.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 115,500 before failing to break higher. The 38.2% level sat near 116,250, which was rejected. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level of the recent 114,000–116,700 swing is at 115,350, and the price closed slightly below that, suggesting continued bearish pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern and the bearish divergence in volume and MACD, a possible backtest strategy could involve a short entry on a close below 114,870 DAI, with a stop-loss placed above 115,200 DAI. A target of 114,400 DAI could be used, with exits based on a 50-period MA cross or a RSI bounce above 50. This approach would capitalize on the observed bearish momentum and volatility while managing risk through defined stops and targets.