Market Overview for Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY): Key Support and Momentum Divergence

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• Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) opened at ¥81,528 and traded between ¥81,128 and ¥82,250 before closing at ¥81,384.
• A bullish 15-minute engulfing pattern formed around ¥81,883, but bears retook control after a key resistance break at ¥82,036.
• Volume spiked during the ¥81,883–¥82,250 rally but dropped off sharply after 22:30 ET, indicating a lack of sustained buying pressure.
• Bollinger Bands showed volatility expansion during the ¥81,386–¥82,250 range, then contracted as price consolidated in the final hours.
• RSI briefly hit overbought territory (70+) during the ¥82,036 peak but closed in mid-range, suggesting exhaustion in the short-term rally.

24-Hour Price Summary and Volume Profile

Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) opened at ¥81,528 at 12:00 ET–1 and saw a brief push to ¥82,250 by 22:30 ET. The pair closed at ¥81,384 at 12:00 ET, with the 24-hour range spanning ¥81,128 to ¥82,250. The total volume was approximately 34.56 BCH, and the notional turnover amounted to roughly ¥2,846,461, reflecting moderate liquidity and active short-term trading.

Structural and Pattern Analysis

The 15-minute candles showed a key bullish engulfing pattern forming around ¥81,883, where the pair surged from ¥81,799 to ¥81,999, indicating a short-term reversal. However, bears reclaimed control after the price failed to hold the ¥82,036 resistance level, forming a bearish rejection pattern. A doji formed at ¥82,298, suggesting indecision and potential exhaustion. Key support levels are emerging at ¥81,612 and ¥81,446, both of which were tested multiple times.

Technical Indicators: MACD, RSI, and Bollinger Bands

The MACD showed a bullish crossover in the ¥81,801–¥81,999 range, coinciding with a volume spike, but then diverged as prices fell after 22:30 ET, signaling weakening momentum. The RSI reached overbought levels (70+) around ¥82,250 but failed to sustain the move, closing in the mid-40s, suggesting a balanced but cautious market. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the ¥81,386–¥82,250 consolidation, followed by a contraction as the price approached the lower band at ¥81,128, indicating a potential support area.

Fibonacci Retracements and Volatility Clues

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the ¥81,128–¥82,250 swing, key levels at 38.2% (¥81,671) and 61.8% (¥81,897) were tested, with price pausing at both. A break below ¥81,446 (23.6% of the ¥81,386–¥81,612 leg) could trigger a deeper pullback to ¥81,128 or beyond. The ATR (average true range) remained elevated through ¥82,250, reflecting increased volatility, but dropped off in the final hours, aligning with the Bollinger Bands contraction.

Volume and Turnover Insights

Volumes were concentrated during the ¥81,883–¥82,250 rally and during the ¥81,538–¥81,883 bounce, with the highest turnover occurring at ¥82,250 and ¥81,538. A clear divergence is visible between price and volume post-¥82,250, with price falling while volume remained low, hinting at a potential reversal or lack of conviction. Investors should monitor for a volume increase on a break above ¥82,036 as a potential reversal signal.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves a 15-minute breakout system targeting key Fibonacci levels and RSI divergence. A long entry is triggered on a close above the 61.8% retracement level with RSI below 40 and increasing volume. A short entry is triggered on a close below the 38.2% retracement level with RSI above 60 and declining volume. The hypothesis is that these divergences and levels can offer high-probability entries during choppy conditions, especially after a consolidation phase like the one observed in the last 24 hours. The strategy relies on a combination of price structure, volume, and momentum signals to filter false breakouts and identify trend continuation or reversal.