Market Overview for Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY)

• Bitcoin Cash/Yen declined by 4.64% over the last 24 hours, closing at 87,630 Yen.
• A strong bearish momentum is evident, with RSI dropping below 30 into oversold territory.
• Volatility has increased, with Bollinger Bands widening as price moves lower.
• Volume picked up during the sell-off, confirming the bearish trend in the final hours.
• A potential short-term support zone forms near 87,000–87,500 Yen.

The Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) pair opened at 90,241 Yen on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET and closed at 87,630 Yen on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 91,119 Yen and a low of 88,310 Yen over the 24-hour period. Total trading volume was 115.34 BCH, and the notional turnover amounted to approximately ¥9,682,628. The price action displayed a clear bearish bias, particularly in the final hours of the period.

Structure & Formations

The daily candlestick chart of BCHJPY revealed a distinct bearish bias, with price action forming a series of lower highs and lower lows over the 24-hour period. A large bearish engulfing pattern emerged in the early morning (ET), as price opened at 90,151 Yen and closed at 89,505 Yen—a 646 Yen decline. This was followed by a sharp sell-off in the early hours of the morning, forming a key resistance zone around 89,500–89,600 Yen. A doji formed briefly at 89,505 Yen, indicating indecision before a further decline into the 87,000–88,000 range. The price appears to have found a temporary floor near 87,000–87,500 Yen, but it is not yet a strong support level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearishly aligned, with the 50-period MA (50MA) sitting below the 20-period MA, indicating a bearish crossover. The daily chart shows the 50-period MA at around 89,600 Yen and the 100-period MA at 89,750 Yen, with the 200-period MA at 89,400 Yen. The price is now below all three key daily MAs, reinforcing the bearish bias. If the price breaks below the 87,500 Yen level, the 200MA may offer a final line of defense.

MACD & RSI

The MACD for BCHJPY turned negative during the early morning hours and has remained bearish since, with the signal line crossing below the MACD line. This confirms the strengthening of the bearish momentum. The RSI indicator has dropped below 30, entering oversold territory, which may hint at a short-term bounce. However, without a corresponding increase in buying volume, it may simply represent exhaustion rather than a reversal signal. The divergence between RSI and price action during the sell-off remains a key factor to monitor.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded over the last 24 hours, with Bollinger Bands widening significantly as the price declined. The price has spent the majority of the time near or at the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a strong bearish pressure. A contraction in volatility could precede a reversal or a continuation of the trend, depending on the volume dynamics and RSI behavior. The current volatility pattern suggests a continuation of the bearish trend unless a strong buying wave emerges.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key price declines in the early morning and late night hours, confirming the bearish momentum. The largest volume spike occurred between 20:00–21:00 ET, where the price dropped from 91,119 Yen to 90,457 Yen on a volume of 1.7363 BCH. A similar pattern repeated during the 05:00–06:00 ET period, with a 240 Yen drop confirmed by 0.1864 BCH in volume. The most recent decline from 89,450 Yen to 87,446 Yen (2,004 Yen) was supported by 2.7291 BCH in volume, indicating strong bearish participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 91,119 Yen to 87,446 Yen, the 38.2% retracement level sits at 88,871 Yen, while the 61.8% level is at 89,210 Yen. These levels could act as potential resistance areas during any short-term bounce. On the daily chart, applying retracement to the swing from 91,119 Yen to 87,446 Yen, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels would fall at 88,569 Yen and 88,758 Yen, respectively. The price is currently below both, reinforcing the bearish outlook.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum and volume confirmation, a backtest strategy may focus on short positions triggered by a close below key Fibonacci levels or a RSI divergence into oversold territory. A potential approach could involve a sell signal when the price breaks below the 200-period MA (89,400 Yen) and the RSI remains below 30 for two consecutive candles. A stop-loss could be placed at the most recent high of the daily bar, while the profit target aligns with the next Fibonacci level. This strategy would aim to capitalize on the continuation of the current bearish trend.