Market Overview for Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY)

• Price fell 3.4% from 88,650 to 87,454 JPY over 24 hours.
• Volatility spiked during sharp 9:15–9:30 ET decline (-1,000 JPY in 15 mins).
• MACD turned negative, RSI below 40 suggests bearish momentum.
• Low volume during key declines raised bearish divergence risk.
• Bollinger Bands widened post-10,000 JPY drop, signaling increased uncertainty.

Price and Volume Snapshot

Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) opened at 88,650 JPY (12:00 ET–1) and closed at 87,454 JPY (12:00 ET), hitting a high of 88,989 JPY and a low of 87,122 JPY. Total 24-hour volume was 114.82 BCH, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥10,270,000 JPY (based on average price). The price trend appears bearish, with significant downward momentum observed late in the session.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart shows a bearish engulfing pattern forming from 02:00 to 03:45 ET as the price fell from 88,156 to 87,424 JPY. A key support level appears to be forming around 87,400–87,500 JPY, as the price has tested this level multiple times. A doji formed at 11:45 ET near 87,533 JPY, which may indicate indecision and potential reversal. Resistance remains near 88,000 JPY, where the price has previously failed to break through.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearish, with the 20 MA crossing below the 50 MA, forming a death cross. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is below the 100- and 200-period MAs, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. The price is below all key MAs, indicating a strong downward bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and remains below the zero line, with bearish divergence evident during the sharp declines after 02:00 ET. The RSI has fallen to 35–39, suggesting oversold conditions, but the bearish momentum remains intact. There is a risk of a further pullback if the RSI fails to rise above 40.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly during the 10,000 JPY drop, indicating increased volatility. The price has remained near the lower band for several hours, suggesting bearish pressure. A retest of the upper band (currently near 88,000 JPY) would require strong bullish momentum, which currently appears unlikely.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp selloff from 02:00 to 04:00 ET, particularly during the 88,156–87,122 JPY decline. However, price action during these periods did not match the high volume, suggesting bearish divergence. Notional turnover also rose during this period, confirming the bearish sentiment. The low volume in the final 6 hours of the session indicates weak conviction in the current range.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 88,650 to 87,122 JPY, the 61.8% level is at 87,534 JPY, which aligns with the current support level. A breakdown below 87,534 JPY may target the 87,325 JPY (38.2%) and 87,122 JPY (low) levels. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of a prior bullish move is at 87,984 JPY, which could act as a dynamic resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum and strong support at 87,400–87,500 JPY, a backtest strategy could focus on shorting BCHJPY on a breakout below the 87,534 JPY Fibonacci level, with a stop-loss placed above 87,700 JPY to limit exposure to potential reversals. A take-profit target might be set at 87,122 JPY (swing low), with a 3:1 risk-to-reward ratio. This approach aligns with the technical indicators, particularly the RSI and MACD, which both suggest bearish bias. A confirmation of the pattern through a retest of the 87,500 JPY level could provide additional confidence in the setup.