Market Overview for Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) – 24-Hour Summary as of 2025-10-06

• Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) traded in a narrow range early before surging to ¥90,534, but retraced sharply to close near ¥89,918.
• Momentum indicators showed overbought conditions mid-day, followed by a sharp divergence in RSI and price.
• Volatility expanded significantly during the overnight session, with price breaking key 15-minute Bollinger levels.
• Volume and turnover remained low early but spiked during the ¥89,000–¥90,500 consolidation and the final sharp retracement.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near ¥89,900, suggesting a potential short-term reversal, though bearish momentum returned in the last 15-minute period.

BCHJPY opened at ¥88,001 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET, touched a high of ¥90,534, and closed at ¥89,918 at 12:00 ET the following day. Total traded volume stood at 104.31, and notional turnover reached ¥9,646,570, with significant activity during the ¥90,000–¥90,500 consolidation and the final retracement.

Price action showed a strong bullish bias for most of the session, breaking above key 15-minute Bollinger band levels and forming a bullish engulfing pattern near ¥89,900. However, a bearish divergence in RSI emerged after ¥90,200, suggesting a potential reversal. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained bullish, but the 50-period line began to flatten as price declined toward the close.

Volatility expanded during the overnight and early morning hours, with a notable increase in both range and turnover. Price tested key Fibonacci retracement levels between ¥89,700–¥90,200 and bounced off the 61.8% level near ¥90,000, before a final bearish breakdown. A bearish pinbar appeared in the final 15-minute candle, suggesting a lack of buying pressure at higher levels. The RSI moved below 60, indicating waning momentum, and the MACD crossed below the signal line, signaling a bearish shift in trend.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the overnight and early morning trading hours, with price staying inside the upper band for much of the session. A volatility contraction was visible between ¥89,600–¥90,000 before a sharp break above and then back below. This suggests a period of consolidation followed by aggressive price action and reversal, typical of a market nearing a turning point. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages remained above price for most of the session, but the 50-period line flattened and crossed below price near the end, indicating a bearish shift.

The Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the key 15-minute swing showed price bouncing off the 61.8% level near ¥90,000 and then breaking below the 50% level near ¥89,900. This aligns with a potential short-term bearish reversal, especially as the 38.2% and 23.6% levels now appear as potential support zones. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level from a previous downtrend near ¥89,500 could also serve as a critical support level if price continues lower.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could be built around the observed bearish pinbar and the bearish divergence in RSI, using a sell signal at the close of a 15-minute candle that forms a pinbar near key Fibonacci levels. A stop-loss could be placed above the high of the pinbar, with a target at the next Fibonacci support or moving average level. Given the recent momentum shift and the bearish MACD cross, this strategy could be tested for effectiveness in similar high-volatility, post-breakout conditions.