Market Overview: Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) — 24-Hour Analysis

• Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) declined 9.3% in 24 hours, closing at 88351 Yen after a sharp sell-off.
• Momentum slowed as RSI approached oversold territory, while volume surged during the downward move.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 89740 Yen, followed by a sharp breakdown below key support levels.
• Volatility expanded as prices swung between 87373 and 89914 Yen, with Bollinger Bands widening in the second half of the day.
• A large-volume sell-off occurred around 23:00 ET, pushing BCHJPY below 89000 for the first time in 24 hours.

24-Hour Price Summary and Volume

Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) opened at 88475 Yen on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and fell to a 24-hour low of 87373 Yen before closing at 88351 Yen. The pair reached a high of 89914 Yen during the session. Total volume across 15-minute candles was 77.95 BCH, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥6.87M. This significant price drop suggests bearish momentum and increased selling pressure.

Structure and Key Levels

The 24-hour price action formed a clear bearish engulfing pattern near 89740 Yen, which marked a key resistance level. Following that, a breakdown below 89000 Yen opened the door for further downside. Key support levels observed were 88337 Yen, where a bullish reversal pattern temporarily halted the decline, and 87373 Yen, which served as the intraday low. The structure indicates strong bearish control, with buyers yet to show conviction above 88351 Yen.

Moving Averages and Momentum Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a bearish alignment, with the price trading well below both. The 50-period MA at 89000 Yen acted as a critical resistance-turned-support level. The RSI showed signs of extreme bearish momentum, dropping below 30 to indicate oversold conditions. However, bearish divergence between RSI and price suggests that the sell-off may not be ending soon. The MACD remained bearish with a negative crossover and a declining histogram, reinforcing the downward bias.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the afternoon, reflecting increased volatility. The price tested the lower band multiple times, particularly during the sharp selloff from 89000 Yen to 87373 Yen. The narrowing of the bands earlier in the day hinted at a potential breakout, which was confirmed by the sharp decline. The price remains near the lower band, indicating heightened bearish pressure and a lack of immediate short-term support.

Fibonacci Retracements and Price Action

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key swing high of 89914 Yen and the low of 87373 Yen, the 61.8% level is at 88356 Yen — nearly coinciding with the current closing price. This level could offer some consolidation before further movement. On a shorter scale, the 15-minute chart showed a 38.2% retracement at 89137 Yen, which failed to hold, signaling bearish exhaustion in that area. The 61.8% level at 88685 Yen may serve as a near-term target for further downside if the trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could leverage the bearish engulfing pattern observed at 89740 Yen and the subsequent breakdown of the 89000 Yen level. By entering a short position after a close below 89000 Yen and setting a stop-loss just above the high of the engulfing candle, the strategy would target the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 88356 Yen. The RSI’s oversold condition does not typically trigger a reversal in such a strong bearish setup, making it a high-probability short opportunity in a downtrend with clear price structure and volatility signals reinforcing the trade.