Market Overview: Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) – 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-10-04

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• BCHJPY fell sharply in early trading, dropping below 89000
• Price consolidation emerged near 89000 as support
• Volatility increased during the overnight Asian session
• Bullish momentum stalled despite higher volume in afternoon hours
• RSI and MACD suggest oversold conditions, hinting at possible bounce

The 24-hour candle for Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) opened at 90,086 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at 87,199 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET. During the period, it reached a high of 90,600 and fell to a low of 86,339. Total traded volume for the 24-hour period was 39.3989 BCH, and notional turnover was approximately 3.463 billion JPY.

The price action reveals a strong bearish trend, with a sharp decline in the first half of the session and consolidation near key support levels. The candlestick patterns suggest exhaustion in the upside with several large bearish bodies and a long upper shadow in the initial rally. A bullish engulfing pattern near 89,000–89,300 may indicate a possible reversal, though bearish dominance remains strong.

Structure & Formations

Key resistance levels are currently identified at 89,500 and 89,800, where the asset stalled during its attempted recovery. On the support side, 88,800 and 88,000 appear to be critical areas that could halt further decline. A notable doji formed at 89,705 (19:30–19:45 ET) and 88,071 (02:30–02:45 ET), signaling indecision and potential turning points in the short term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearishly sloped, reflecting the downward bias. The 50-period line is above the 20-period, reinforcing the bearish signal. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is significantly above the 100-period and 200-period lines, suggesting a longer-term bearish trend. Price remains below all three, indicating the market is in a bear phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has crossed into negative territory and is declining, confirming bearish momentum. The RSI fell into the oversold range near 30, suggesting the asset could see a short-term bounce. However, the RSI has not diverged from the price action, which weakens the strength of the potential reversal signal. A rebound may be short-lived unless the RSI breaks above 40 with volume confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

The 20-period Bollinger Bands have widened as the price fluctuated between 86,339 and 90,600. Price closed just above the lower band, indicating a possible oversold bounce. However, the band contraction seen earlier in the day has not resolved into a breakout or breakdown, which suggests that volatility is still in a building phase rather than a releasing phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked early in the session during the sharp selloff, particularly between 16:00–17:00 ET and again at 01:30–02:00 ET. Turnover mirrored volume, showing a strong bearish confirmation. However, volume has since dropped off, suggesting that the bearish momentum is losing steam. A divergence between price and volume could hint at a potential short-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 90,600 to 86,339, key retracement levels are 89,530 (38.2%) and 88,270 (61.8%). The price has bounced near the 61.8% level, which could act as a short-term support. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement from a longer-term bear move is near 89,300, and the 61.8% level is near 87,000, aligning with the current price action.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy aims to identify potential reversal points by combining RSI oversold conditions with a bullish engulfing or doji pattern near key support levels. Triggers would include RSI below 30, a candlestick reversal pattern (bullish engulfing, doji), and price action near a defined support level. Stops would be placed below the low of the reversal pattern, and targets would align with the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements. This setup may offer a high-risk/reward opportunity, particularly in a volatile market like BCHJPY, where short-term corrections could provide entry points for medium-term buyers.