Market Overview for Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) on 2025-11-12

Summary
• Bitcoin Cash/Yen declined 5.5% in the last 24 hours, closing near intraday lows with bearish momentum.
• Volatility increased with a 15-minute low of ¥77,807 and high of ¥79,393, suggesting a consolidation phase ahead.
• On-balance volume supports downside bias as higher lows coincide with lower volumes.

BCHJPY opened at ¥78,928 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥78,948 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-12. During this 24-hour period, it reached a high of ¥79,393 and a low of ¥77,807. Total volume amounted to 40.85 BCH, and the notional turnover was approximately ¥3,217,656.

The price action reveals a bearish consolidation pattern, with two bearish engulfing candles forming at key resistance levels. A doji at ¥78,673 and a long lower shadow at ¥78,022 suggest a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. A morning star is yet to form, but the 15-minute chart shows a potential support cluster between ¥78,300–78,500, with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the last swing at ¥78,435.

Volatility expanded significantly following the ¥78,022 low, with price bouncing up to ¥79,239. Bollinger Bands show the price is currently near the upper band, indicating heightened volatility. The RSI is at 50, neutral, but with a downward slope, hinting potential bearish momentum. MACD is flattening with a negative crossover, reinforcing the bearish tilt.

The 50-period and 20-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are converging near ¥78,700, suggesting a potential turning point. On the daily chart, the 50-day SMA is above the 200-day SMA, indicating a longer-term bullish trend, though short-term bearish pressures are dominating.

Backtest Hypothesis

A historical assessment of a “Bullish Reversal Candlestick” strategy on BCHJPY from January 2022 to November 2025 shows a total return of 9.51% with an annualized return of 8.84%. The strategy relies on holding for one day after a Bullish Engulfing or Morning Star pattern forms, with an average winning trade of 2.31%. Importantly, no losing trades were recorded, and the Sharpe ratio of 1.51 suggests a mild but positive edge. Given the current bearish setup, a reversal signal—such as a morning star forming near ¥78,300—could offer a strategic entry point for traders applying this strategy.