Market Overview for Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) – 2025-11-06

• BCHJPY opened at ¥75,356 and traded between ¥73,825 and ¥76,201 over 24 hours.• Momentum weakened in the final hours with RSI near oversold levels and a bearish divergence.• Volatility remained elevated, but volume and turnover showed divergence in the final leg of the session.

Market Summary

Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) opened at ¥75,356 at 12:00 ET − 1 and traded within a range of ¥73,825 to ¥76,201 over the 24-hour period, ultimately closing at ¥73,825 at 12:00 ET. Total trading volume reached 21.44 BCH, with a notional turnover of ¥1.59 million JPY. The pair displayed choppy price action with alternating bullish and bearish impulses, particularly during the overnight Asian session.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period showed a series of alternating bullish and bearish candlestick patterns. A strong bullish engulfing pattern emerged just after 18:30 ET on 2025-11-05, followed by a bearish evening star around 02:00 ET. A doji formed at 05:00 ET, signaling indecision, while a large bearish candle during the final hour of the session confirmed ongoing selling pressure. Key support appears to be forming around ¥74,500, with resistance likely at ¥75,900.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA) remained above the 50-period SMA throughout the session, indicating short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA appears to act as a psychological resistance, with the 200-period SMA offering a potential medium-term support zone. The pair is currently below both the 50 and 100-period SMAs, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained negative for much of the session, with a bearish crossover occurring around 05:30 ET. A bearish divergence appeared between price and the RSI in the final 90 minutes of the session, suggesting further downside potential. RSI hit oversold territory near 30 during the final hour, but without a reversal in the trend, this may not trigger a bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased during the overnight Asian session, with the Bollinger Bands widening and the price touching the lower band several times. During the final leg of the session, price action remained near the lower band, indicating a continuation of bearish momentum. A contraction in the bands during the European session hinted at a potential breakout, but this did not materialize.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly during the overnight Asian session and remained elevated through the U.S. and European trading hours. However, in the final hour, while price fell sharply to ¥73,825, volume dropped off. This divergence between price and volume suggests weakening conviction among sellers. Turnover mirrored volume closely, with no significant divergences observed until the final hour.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent high of ¥76,201 and low of ¥73,825 show the 61.8% level at ¥74,550, which aligns with a key support zone. The 38.2% retracement at ¥75,356 coincided with the opening price and acted as a short-term resistance. The pair is currently trading near the 100% extension level, suggesting that further bearish momentum may be limited without a break below ¥73,800.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish divergence in RSI and MACD toward the session’s end, a backtest strategy could be designed to identify and trade similar patterns. A sell signal could be triggered when a bearish MACD top divergence occurs, with a target exit at the next swing low and a stop-loss placed just above the most recent swing high. For a comprehensive backtest of this strategy, it’s essential to clarify whether the sell action occurs immediately upon signal or waits for confirmation. Including risk controls such as a fixed stop-loss or time-based exit will help refine the strategy's performance metrics from 2022-01-01 to the present.