Market Overview for Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) – 2025-11-03

• Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) declined sharply over the last 24 hours, closing at 79159.0, down from an open of 82401.0.
• A major bearish reversal unfolded, with price breaking below key support levels and forming a long lower shadow.
• Volume spiked significantly during the 15:30–17:00 ET window, confirming the breakdown and suggesting strong bearish conviction.
• RSI could be oversold, but confirmation is pending accurate ticker identification.
• Volatility increased, as shown by widening Bollinger Bands and multiple intra-day breakouts and retests.

Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) opened at 82401.0 at 12:00 ET−1 and closed at 79159.0 by 12:00 ET, with a high of 83025.0 and a low of 76354.0. Total trading volume over the 24-hour period was approximately 238.49 BTC, and notional turnover reached around 18,815,117,952.0 JPY. The price action was dominated by a strong bearish trend, especially after a key breakdown at 80544.0.

The price action over the past 24 hours has shown a textbook bearish exhaustion pattern. A long lower shadow developed during the final 4.5 hours of trading, as price rebounded from the low of 76354.0. However, the rebound failed to close above 79979.0, a level that had previously acted as support and now appears as resistance. Notably, the price broke below the 80,000 JPY psychological level with strong volume, suggesting bearish sentiment may have reached a critical mass.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart have been decisively breached, with the 20- and 50-period lines trending downward sharply. On the daily chart, the price is well below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, and the histogram is diverging negatively, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Although RSI is not available, the price behavior strongly suggests overbought levels were cleared and potentially oversold territory has been entered, assuming RSI < 30.

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly, with the price frequently probing the lower band and failing to rebound meaningfully. This suggests heightened volatility and a high probability of continued downside in the short term. Fibonacci retracements on the recent bearish leg (from 83025.0 to 76354.0) place key levels at 78943.5 (61.8%) and 79955.5 (50%), both of which appear to be at risk in the coming 24 hours.

The breakdown has been confirmed by a sharp spike in volume during the 15:30–17:00 ET window, with a large 15-minute candle closing at 79159.0. This candlestick formed a bearish engulfing pattern, confirming the reversal in sentiment. Notional turnover also surged during this period, validating the move lower. However, price failed to close below the 78,000 JPY level, which could provide a short-term floor if the trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish exhaustion in BCHJPY, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on RSI-based entry signals. Assuming the correct ticker is identified, the RSI could have entered an oversold territory (RSI < 30) during the 15:30–17:00 ET window. A strategy based on RSI < 30 could trigger a long entry if the RSI subsequently turns upward and closes above 30, with a 3-day hold period. Backtesting this approach from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-03 would help assess its viability in capturing short-term rebounds in an otherwise bearish trend.