Market Overview for Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) — 2025-10-29

• Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) ended lower at 84,888, down from 85,709, with heavy volume and a sharp intraday drop to 84,382.
• Momentum weakened as RSI and MACD showed bearish divergence, while volume spiked on the down leg.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed midday, followed by a retest of 84,382–84,517 support with mixed follow-through.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening after the drop, indicating uncertainty.
• Fibonacci retracements from the 85,709 high suggest 84,517 and 84,382 as key levels for near-term direction.

15-Minute Price Action and Context

Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) opened at 85,709 on October 29 at 12:00 ET and closed at 84,888, down 0.96%. The 24-hour high of 86,540 was reached around 05:45 ET, while the low of 83,781 occurred at 11:45 ET. The total traded volume over the 24-hour window was 235.71 BCH, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥20,093,787. The price action showed a bearish reversal pattern midday, with a sharp drop followed by a retest of key support levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a significant bearish engulfing pattern that formed at 19:30–20:15 ET, with a large drop from 85,932 to 84,946. This pattern was followed by a retest of the 84,382–84,517 support zone. A small doji formed at 09:45–10:00 ET, indicating indecision in the short term. Additionally, Fibonacci retracements from the 85,709 high suggest 84,517 (38.2%) and 84,382 (61.8%) as critical levels for near-term direction. Resistance appears to be forming between 85,000 and 85,200 based on recent rejection of these levels.

Technical Indicators: Momentum and Volatility

The 15-minute RSI dropped sharply below 40 after the bearish engulfing pattern, indicating weakening momentum and a potential bearish continuation. MACD crossed into negative territory with bearish divergence, suggesting a potential continuation of the downward trend. Volatility expanded significantly during the drop to 83,781, with Bollinger Bands widening to reflect growing uncertainty. Price tested the lower Bollinger Band at 84,382–84,517 but failed to close below it, indicating potential support for the near term.

Moving Averages and Positioning

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (85,100–85,300) acted as a bearish resistance level, while the 50-period line (85,000–84,900) was tested but not decisively broken. On the daily chart, the 50-day line is around 85,000 and remains critical for longer-term positioning. Price is currently below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, suggesting a bearish bias over the coming weeks if support levels at 84,382–84,517 are confirmed.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked during the sharp decline from 85,932 to 84,946, with a peak of 19.0955 BCH traded during the 06:00–06:15 ET timeframe. This heavy volume on the down leg supports the bearish signal. Turnover also increased significantly during this period, reaching ¥1,618,643 in a single 15-minute interval. However, the retest of support at 84,382–84,517 showed mixed follow-through, with volume dropping off, indicating cautious sentiment ahead of the next directional move.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern and the key Fibonacci retracement levels, a potential backtest could be constructed using a resistance-based exit strategy. For example, a strategy could enter short positions on the close of a bullish or bearish engulfing pattern and exit at the next swing high (measured as the highest close since the pattern formed). Using the 15-minute OHLCV data, this would involve scanning for engulfing patterns and calculating exits based on the nearest swing high.

A backtest could use Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) as the universe. The entry price would be the close of the engulfing pattern day, and position sizing could be 100% of capital per trade (one position at a time). A stop-loss of 2% below the entry level could be applied to manage risk, with a maximum holding period of 3 days. By applying this strategy from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-29, we could evaluate the profitability and robustness of the pattern-based approach in this market.