Market Overview for Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) on 2025-10-11

• Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) experienced a broad selloff over the 24-hour period, with price falling from ¥88,243 to ¥80,921.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with a range of ¥7,883, while volume surged to 235.59 BTC-equivalent.
• Momentum indicators pointed to oversold conditions by session close, with RSI near 28 and MACD in bearish territory.
• Notable bearish patterns emerged, including a large bearish engulfing candle and a breakdown below key support levels.
• Bollinger Bands widened, confirming elevated volatility, and price closed near the lower band, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11, Bitcoin Cash/Yen (BCHJPY) opened at ¥88,243 and traded as high as ¥90,348 and as low as ¥73,653 before closing at ¥80,921. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 235.59 BTC-equivalent, with a notional turnover of ¥19,099,996.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period was marked by a sharp bearish trend, with price forming a large bearish engulfing candle during the overnight session and a deep breakdown below ¥85,000, a key psychological level. A doji formed near ¥80,570, signaling potential short-term exhaustion in the downtrend. Support levels identified at ¥80,570 and ¥79,500 appear critical, with the former showing consolidation and the latter currently untested.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both below price, reinforcing the bearish momentum. Over the daily chart, the 50-period moving average appears to be a strong resistance, while the 200-period MA sits significantly higher, indicating a long-term bearish bias. A crossover below the 50-day MA may confirm a deeper correction.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed below the signal line early in the session, confirming the bearish turn, with a wide negative histogram showing expanding bear momentum. RSI fell into oversold territory near 28 at the close, suggesting potential for a rebound or consolidation phase. However, the strength of the recent move implies any bounce may lack conviction, and a bearish divergence in RSI could signal further weakness.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sell-off, confirming heightened volatility. Price closed near the lower band at ¥80,570, a level that could serve as a near-term floor. A retest of this level may trigger a bounce, but a breakdown below it could accelerate the move toward ¥79,000 and ¥78,000, as defined by recent Fibonacci levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the major selloff in the late evening and early morning hours, particularly at ¥81,000 and ¥80,500, indicating strong selling pressure. Notional turnover aligned with volume, with the largest spikes occurring during the breakdowns. A divergence between price and volume during the doji at ¥80,570 may suggest temporary exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent ¥88,243–¥73,653 swing, key levels include 38.2% at ¥82,167 and 61.8% at ¥79,347. Price closed near the 61.8% level and appears to be testing its stickiness. A breakdown below ¥79,347 could extend the move toward ¥78,000. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the prior leg is now a potential support/resistance pivot at ¥85,000.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish momentum and confirmed breakdown of key support levels, a potential backtest strategy could involve a short entry on a close below ¥80,570, with a stop above ¥82,000 and a target at ¥78,000. This setup would leverage the bearish engulfing pattern and the oversold RSI divergence to enter a short position, aiming to capture a continuation of the selloff. A trailing stop could be used if price shows signs of consolidation. The trade would be exited upon a retest of ¥82,000 or if RSI shows a bullish divergence, suggesting a potential reversal.