Market Overview for Bitcoin Cash/Tether (BCHUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• Price action shows a bearish drift with a low of $591.5 and a high of $615.3 in 24 hours.
• Momentum appears weak with RSI near oversold territory and declining volume.
• A key support level forms near $593.8, while resistance remains at $607.6.
• Bollinger Bands constrict in the later hours, signaling potential volatility.
• Divergence between volume and price suggests potential for a reversal or continuation.

The Bitcoin Cash/Tether (BCHUSDT) pair opened at $606.3 on 2025-10-03 at 16:00 ET, reaching a high of $615.3 and a low of $591.5 before closing at $592.8 on 2025-10-04 at 07:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 21,916.897, while total turnover amounted to $13,163,654.87 (sum of close * volume for all 15-minute OHLCV candles). The market exhibited a consistent bearish bias amid subdued momentum.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish structure characterized by a prolonged descent after the initial midday high. A clear support cluster formed around $593.8, with a potential short-term bounce observed in the early morning. A bearish engulfing pattern occurred at $597.3–$596.8, indicating increased selling pressure. A long lower shadow near $591.5 suggests a possible short-term bottom, though a break below this level could trigger further declines.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages (20/50-period) on the 15-minute chart show a clear downward bias, with price remaining beneath both. On a daily basis, the 50-period SMA sits below the 100- and 200-period SMAs, suggesting bearish continuation unless a strong reversal occurs. Price remains below all major moving averages, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD is bearish, with the histogram showing negative divergence and a clear downward trend in momentum. The RSI has entered oversold territory (around 25–28), but without confirmation of a reversal, this may indicate an extended bearish phase. A bearish crossover in MACD and a failure to close above the 30 level in RSI suggests further downward pressure is likely.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands constricted during the late hours of the day, with price closing near the lower band at $592.8. This narrowing often precedes a breakout or breakdown, and the positioning near the lower band suggests a potential short-term bounce. However, a break below the lower band would confirm a new support level and signal continued bearish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained moderate throughout the session, with notable spikes during the late-night and early-morning hours. The most significant volume spike occurred at $593.8–$594.7, coinciding with a small consolidation phase. Turnover followed a similar pattern, aligning with price, suggesting strong conviction in the bearish trend. Divergence between price and volume was minimal, supporting the continuation of the bearish bias.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 15-minute swing from $615.3 to $591.5, key levels include $604.8 (38.2%), $598.6 (50%), and $593.8 (61.8%). Price found temporary support at $593.8, aligning with the 61.8% level. A break below this level may trigger a move toward the next Fibonacci level at $590.2, reinforcing bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish structure and RSI divergence, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry at $607.6 with a stop above $610.0 and a target at $593.8, using RSI as a sell signal when it closes above 50. A trailing stop could be added as price approaches key support levels. This approach capitalizes on the continuation of a bearish trend, using Fibonacci retracements and RSI as confirmation tools for entries and exits.