Market Overview for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) – 24-Hour Technical Analysis

• Bitcoin tested $116,000 resistance but retracted, forming bearish engulfing patterns near key levels.
• Volume surged during the 22:15–23:15 ET window, coinciding with a sharp $116,900 high, but failed to hold above.
• RSI and MACD showed weakening momentum with bearish divergence, suggesting potential near-term exhaustion.
• Volatility expanded as Bitcoin broke out of a Bollinger Band contraction, now trading near the lower band.
• Fibonacci retracement levels suggest further support near $114,900 and possible resistance at $116,600 in the short term.

Bitcoin opened at $115,820 on 2025-08-18 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $116,972 before closing at $115,866.65 by 12:00 ET on 2025-08-19. Total traded volume was 10,856.55 BTC, with a turnover of approximately $1.24 billion.

Structure & Formations

Price attempted to break above $116,600 on multiple occasions but consistently failed, resulting in bearish engulfing patterns around this area. A key support level appears to be forming at $115,700–$116,100 based on recurring consolidation and rejection. A long lower shadow on the 21:45–22:00 ET candle suggests a momentary bid for stability, but the overall structure favors a continuation of selling pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are converging near $116,000, indicating a critical juncture for price. On the daily chart, Bitcoin is trading below its 200-period moving average, with the 50-period line also showing a bearish cross with the 100-period line, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has turned negative and is below its signal line, reflecting a shift in momentum to the bearish side. RSI is currently in neutral territory (~48) but has shown bearish divergence during key uplegs, particularly following the $116,900 high. This suggests traders may be losing conviction in upward moves.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after a period of contraction around $116,200–$116,500. Price is now trading near the lower band of the Bollinger Band, indicating a potential short-term oversold condition. However, without a strong rebound above the middle band, the bearish trend may persist.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at $116,900 and $116,600, confirming short-term resistance levels but failed to produce a follow-through move. Notional turnover surged during these peaks but then sharply declined as the price retracted, signaling a lack of follow-through buying interest. Divergences between price and volume suggest weakening bullish participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent $115,700–$116,972 move, the 38.2% retracement level is at approximately $116,150, and the 61.8% level is near $115,750. Given the current price near $115,800, a test of the 61.8% level appears likely. Daily retracement levels also suggest support could be found near $114,900 and resistance at $116,600.

The next 24 hours could see Bitcoin consolidate near current levels or continue the downward drift toward the $114,900 Fibonacci support. A sustained close above $116,600 may reinvigorate the bullish case, but a breakdown below $115,700 could trigger further selling into $114,500. Investors should monitor volume and MACD for signs of trend exhaustion or reversal.