Market Overview for Bitcoin/Argentine Peso (BTCARS)

• BTCARS opened at 150,837,746 and reached an intraday high of 156,000,000 before closing at 155,494,426.
• Volatility increased markedly, with a 3.5% range driven by a late-night breakout above 154M.
• RSI hit overbought territory at 72, suggesting potential for near-term pullback.
• Volume surged during the final 45 minutes of the window, confirming a bullish reversal pattern.
• Price remains well above both 20 and 50-period moving averages, signaling short-term bullish momentum.

Bitcoin/Argentine Peso (BTCARS) opened at 150,837,746 on 2025-09-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 155,494,426 at the same time the following day. The pair reached a 24-hour high of 156,000,000 and a low of 150,837,746. Total volume amounted to 0.26336 BTC, while notional turnover (amount) was 1,502 Argentine Pesos. This marked a strong directional bias, with late-day volume surging in confirmation of a bullish reversal.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern showed a clear bullish reversal, with a strong push above the 154M psychological level after a consolidation period. Notable patterns included a bullish engulfing pattern during the 071500-073000 ET timeframe and a hanging man pattern earlier in the night, which failed to trigger a sell-off. The key support level appeared to be in the 152.5M–153M range, which held for much of the session and served as a base for a late rally. A key resistance level formed at 154.5M, with a successful breakout suggesting a shift in sentiment.

Moving Averages

BTCARS traded above both the 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, reinforcing the bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed above the 100-period MA, forming a golden cross, which is often interpreted as a buy signal. The 200-period MA remained significantly lower, suggesting the move is still in the early stages of a potential trend.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a bullish crossover in the final 2 hours of the session, with both the line and histogram turning upward. The RSI surged to 72 during the same period, indicating overbought conditions, which may invite short-term profit-taking. However, the divergence between RSI and price was not significant, and the momentum was clearly aligned with price action, suggesting the move could continue if volume supports it.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased sharply as the price approached and eventually broke above the upper Bollinger Band at 154M. The price had spent most of the session within a narrow range, suggesting a contraction in volatility prior to the breakout. With the upper band now effectively becoming a new support, any pullback to this level may offer a re-entry point for bulls. The lower band acted as a solid floor early in the session, preventing a deeper retracement.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically in the final 45 minutes of the 24-hour window, particularly during the 070000-073000 ET session, with a total volume of 0.01215 BTC traded during this period. This volume was accompanied by a proportional rise in notional turnover, suggesting genuine conviction behind the breakout. Earlier in the day, volume remained relatively low despite the price range, indicating a lack of conviction during the consolidation phase. The volume profile confirmed the breakout pattern and suggests the move is not a false positive.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key 15-minute swing from 150.8M to 156.0M, the price appears to find support at the 61.8% level (~154.2M), which coincides with the breakout level. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement level is at 152.8M and has held up well over the last two sessions. These levels may act as dynamic supports and resistances, with a break above 154.2M potentially targeting the 156.6M level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering a long position on BTCARS when price breaks above the 15-minute upper Bollinger Band, confirmed by a bullish crossover in the MACD and an RSI above 50. The stop-loss is placed at the 20-period moving average, and the take-profit target is set at 1.5 times the average true range (ATR) over the past 14 periods. Given today’s 15-minute chart action, this strategy would have triggered a buy at 154.0M, with a stop at 153.2M and a profit target at 155.5M. The 24-hour move appears to have aligned with this strategy, validating the logic and offering a replicable framework for future entries.