Market Overview: Bitcoin/Argentine Peso (BTCARS) – 24-Hour Analysis

• BTCARS dropped 34.7% over 24 hours, closing at 155,253,852 ARS, with massive intraday volatility.
• Key support tested at 153,900,000 ARS as RSI hit oversold levels, suggesting potential bounce.
• Bollinger Band contraction during early ET hours preceded a sharp breakdown in price.
• Volume spiked during the 13:15–14:45 ET window, but price failed to confirm the strength.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 162,000,000 ARS, signaling strong downward bias.

Bitcoin/Argentine Peso (BTCARS) opened at 159,129,643 ARS on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 155,253,852 ARS the following day. The pair reached a high of 162,010,000 ARS and a low of 153,900,000 ARS, with total volume traded at 0.832 BTC and a notional turnover of 130,384,500,000 ARS. Price action reflected a sharp breakdown amid heightened volatility and bearish momentum.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour price action displayed a clear bearish bias, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming at 162,010,000 ARS. This candlestick pattern, combined with a strong intraday breakdown, signaled a shift in sentiment. Key support levels emerged around 155,735,193 ARS and 153,900,000 ARS. A doji formed near 155,735,193 ARS, indicating indecision before the final leg down. The price closed near the lower end of the Bollinger Bands, confirming extreme volatility.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, BTCARS closed below both the 20-period (156,101,000 ARS) and 50-period (157,431,037 ARS) moving averages, reinforcing the bearish trend. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average sits at 160,434,440 ARS, with the 200-period at 162,178,480 ARS. Price remains significantly below both, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend for the next few days.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line (bearish crossover), and the histogram displayed a widening bearish divergence, aligning with the price drop. RSI hit 29.3 at the 04:45 ET candle, signaling oversold territory. While this may suggest a short-term bounce, it remains to be seen if buying pressure will materialize.

Bollinger Bands

A contraction in Bollinger Bands occurred during the early hours of ET, followed by an explosive breakdown below the lower band. This volatility expansion often precedes a trend continuation, especially in volatile markets like BTCARS. Price has remained in the lower third of the bands for much of the 24-hour period, suggesting bearish continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 13:15–14:45 ET window as BTCARS dropped from 155,735,193 ARS to 154,057,002 ARS. However, the price failed to hold key support levels during this period, creating a divergence between volume and price. Total notional turnover reached 130,384,500,000 ARS, with the highest turnover occurring during the 13:15 ET 15-minute candle.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels applied to the 15-minute chart show that BTCARS tested the 61.8% retracement level at 156,701,998 ARS before breaking down. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the prior bullish move is at 154,057,002 ARS, which aligns with the current support zone. A break below 153,900,000 ARS would target the 78.6% level at 153,000,000 ARS.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bearish signals from MACD and RSI, as well as the confirmation of key Fibonacci and Bollinger Band levels, a potential backtest hypothesis involves a short entry at 156,701,998 ARS with a stop just above 157,431,037 ARS and a target at 153,900,000 ARS. The strategy would use a 20-period EMA as a dynamic stop-loss reference to manage risk. The divergence between price and RSI near oversold levels may also provide a signal for a short-term long trade, but this would require a clear reversal confirmation.