Market Overview for Bitcoin/Argentine Peso (BTCARS) as of 2025-11-03

Summary
• Price dipped 2.3% in 24 hours amid low-volume bearish swings.
• Volatility expanded, with price breaching key Fibonacci levels.
• RSI oversold near 30; momentum suggests potential bounce.

The Bitcoin/Argentine Peso (BTCARS) pair opened at 164,186,571.0 ARS at 12:00 ET - 1 and closed at 160,957,847.0 ARS by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03. The price ranged between a high of 165,455,833.0 ARS and a low of 158,000,000.0 ARS, with total trading volume of approximately 0.7389 BTC and notional turnover of 119,659,895,000 ARS over the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bearish breakdown from a key consolidation range after a prior bullish impulse. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 17:30 ET, confirming a shift in momentum. Several doji and long lower shadows during the evening (22:00–02:00 ET) hinted at buyer exhaustion. Resistance remains clustered near 161,500,000.0 ARS and 164,000,000.0 ARS, with support forming at 160,000,000.0 ARS and 158,000,000.0 ARS.

Moving Averages

Short-term (15-min) moving averages, including the 20- and 50-period SMA, aligned bearishly, confirming the downward bias. Daily moving averages, particularly the 200-period SMA, appear to offer a long-term support level near 157,000,000.0 ARS. A potential reversal could develop if price closes above the 50-period SMA on the daily chart.

MACD & RSI

The RSI reached oversold territory near 30 during the night (04:00–06:00 ET), suggesting a possible near-term rebound. However, the MACD histogram showed divergence from price lows, indicating waning momentum. Traders should watch for a bullish crossover in the MACD as a potential signal for a bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded near the lower Bollinger Band for most of the period, indicating high volatility and bearish pressure. A contraction in the band width occurred briefly at 17:45 ET, suggesting a potential breakout or reversal. Price remains near the lower band, and a retest of the middle band could trigger short-term corrections.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key breakdowns (19:30, 20:15, and 03:30 ET), confirming bearish moves. Notional turnover increased in line with price declines, suggesting coordinated selling. A divergence between rising volume and stabilizing price could indicate a bottoming process.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 61.8% Fibonacci level from the recent swing high (~165,455,833.0 ARS) to the low (~158,000,000.0 ARS) resides at approximately 160,500,000.0 ARS, aligning with current price. A move above 161,500,000.0 ARS could target the 38.2% level at 162,500,000.0 ARS, offering a short-term resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy involves identifying and acting on “Bullish Engulfing” patterns on the BTCARS pair. Given the current price environment and volatility, such patterns could serve as early indicators of a reversal from the recent bearish trend. If confirmed, a 3-day hold strategy from the pattern's close may capture rebound momentum, particularly if the RSI remains above 30 and volume confirms the pattern.