Market Overview for BENQI/Tether (QIUSDT) – 2025-10-06

• QIUSDT opened at $0.00818 and closed at $0.00816, forming a bearish session with a high of $0.00822 and low of $0.00795.
• Volume surged over 1.8M near 14:00 and 15:00 ET, but failed to confirm bullish breakouts, suggesting weak follow-through.
• RSI showed a brief overbought condition in the early session, followed by a retest to oversold, indicating exhausted momentum.
• Bollinger Bands contracted between 05:00–07:00 ET and widened after 10:00 ET, suggesting increased volatility in the afternoon.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 15:45 ET, but it was quickly rejected, highlighting resistance at $0.00825.

BENQI/Tether (QIUSDT) opened at $0.00818 on 2025-10-05 12:00 ET and closed at $0.00816 on 2025-10-06 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.00822 and a low of $0.00795. Total volume reached 156.79 million QIUSDT over the 24-hour window, while notional turnover was $1.29 million. The session featured volatile price swings and multiple failed attempts to reclaim key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bearish bias throughout the session, with a key resistance cluster forming between $0.00820–$0.00825. A bearish trendline was confirmed after the price rejected an engulfing pattern at $0.00819 and fell below the 20-period moving average. A small doji at $0.00801 (19:15 ET) indicated indecision, while a bullish hammer at $0.00804 (14:45 ET) failed to hold above the $0.00810 level, suggesting ongoing bearish control.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed below key swing highs, signaling a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, price closed below all three major moving averages (50, 100, 200), reinforcing a downtrend. The 20-period MA currently sits at $0.00813, with the 50-period at $0.00815, suggesting short-term bearish momentum remains intact.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed a bearish crossover in the morning, with the histogram shrinking through midday before a brief bullish divergence emerged in the afternoon. RSI hit overbought levels at $0.00820 in the early session and dropped to oversold territory below $0.00799 by 19:30 ET, suggesting a potential short-term rebound could be in play. However, the failure to close above $0.00810 suggests that bears still control the narrative.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted between 05:00–07:00 ET and widened again after 10:00 ET, coinciding with increased volume. Price action spent the latter half of the session outside the upper and lower bands, indicating high volatility. The current midline of the bands sits at $0.00809, suggesting the price is now consolidating near the mean but under pressure to break down.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was generally bearish, with large bearish candles at $0.00810–$0.00799 dominating the session. A spike in volume at 15:00–16:00 ET coincided with a failed bullish breakout, indicating rejection of higher prices. Notional turnover peaked at $0.00821 (11:30 ET) and again at $0.00804 (14:45 ET), but both failed to confirm follow-through buying.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key Fibonacci retracement level at 61.8% (around $0.00809) acted as a pivot point, with price bouncing slightly off this level after a deep drop to $0.00795. A 38.2% retracement at $0.00815 also showed resistance, suggesting that the $0.00809–$0.00815 range may act as a key consolidation zone for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish structure, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering short positions at the rejection of key resistance levels (e.g., $0.00815–$0.00820) with a stop-loss above the most recent bullish engulfing pattern. A target could be set near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $0.00809 or lower, with a risk/reward ratio of at least 1:1.5. This approach would align with the observed bearish momentum, failed bullish attempts, and RSI divergence, offering a data-driven entry strategy.