Market Overview: BELUSDT (Bella Protocol/Tether) – 2025-10-31

• BELUSDT declined from 0.2225 to 0.2129, forming bearish momentum with a 24-hour volume of 19.3 million.
• Key support appears at 0.212–0.214, with bearish engulfing patterns visible from 19:30 to 20:00 ET.
• RSI and MACD show oversold conditions, suggesting a possible short-term rebound.
• Volatility widened in the early morning, while volume surged during the 05:00–06:00 ET bullish rebound.
• A test of the 0.220–0.222 resistance zone is likely in the coming 24 hours.

The BELUSDT pair opened at 0.2203 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 0.2129 by 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.2225 and a low of 0.2004 during the 24-hour window. The pair experienced a net bearish trend, with total volume of 19,306,692 and a notional turnover of $4.1 million. Price found a temporary floor in the 0.212–0.214 range, supported by volume spikes and a series of bearish engulfing patterns between 19:30 and 20:00 ET, signaling bearish conviction.

A bearish bias became more defined around 05:00 ET when the pair rebounded from 0.208 to 0.2184 on high volume, forming a possible bullish reversal. However, this was short-lived, and the 20-period moving average dipped below the 50-period, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 50-period moving average remains above the 200-period, suggesting medium-term bearish momentum but with potential for consolidation near key support levels.

Bollinger Bands widened significantly between 04:30 and 06:30 ET, aligning with the sharp price move from 0.2084 to 0.2213, indicating a surge in volatility. The RSI dipped below 30 several times, signaling oversold conditions, while the MACD histogram turned negative and diverged with price during the late-night sell-off. This suggests that while short-term selling pressure is high, a rebound may be possible as the pair approaches its 0.214–0.216 Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level from the 0.2269 high.

Key resistance is clustered between 0.217 and 0.222, with the 0.2204 high on 10/31 representing a critical level to watch. A sustained break above this could signal a resumption of the bullish move. On the downside, a break below 0.212 and into the 0.208–0.210 area would likely trigger further technical selling. Volume and turnover were generally aligned with price, with no significant divergence seen in the last 24 hours. However, caution is warranted as a strong rebound could create a short-term overbought condition if RSI crosses above 50 without strong volume confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish momentum, oversold RSI readings, and key support levels in the 0.212–0.214 range, a potential backtest strategy could focus on a MACD Death Cross combined with RSI Oversold Signal. A short entry could be considered when the MACD line crosses below the signal line and RSI drops below 30, with a stop-loss placed above the recent swing high or key resistance level. A take-profit target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent bearish leg, near 0.206–0.208. This approach would align with the observed price behavior over the past 24 hours and provide a rule-based entry for bearish continuation. Further refinement would require testing this setup on historical data over a longer time frame.