Market Overview for BELUSDT on 2025-10-06

• BELUSDT traded in a narrow range before breaking lower after 18:00 ET with a bearish reversal pattern.
• Volatility increased as the price dropped from 0.2461 to 0.2401 in a 6-hour window, with high volume confirming the move.
• Oversold RSI levels and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.2396 suggest potential near-term support.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction early, followed by expansion, suggesting a likely continuation of the downward trend.
• Turnover spiked above 1.5B USDT after 19:00 ET, reinforcing bearish momentum.

The Bella Protocol/Tether pair (BELUSDT) opened at 0.2457 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.2468, and a low of 0.2391 before closing at 0.2429 on 2025-10-06 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume was 2,090,604.1, and notional turnover amounted to approximately 507,175 USDT, reflecting active participation during key price movements.

Structure and formations revealed a bearish reversal at 18:00 ET marked by a bearish engulfing pattern, followed by a breakdown below 0.2440. The price found temporary support at 0.2424, with a doji forming at 21:45 ET, hinting at indecision. A key resistance appears to be forming around 0.2455–0.2463, with prior support at 0.2401–0.2405. A potential test of 0.2391 could follow if momentum remains bearish.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA are both bearish, with the price below both. The 200-day SMA is neutral but shows a slight downward bias. The MACD crossed into bearish territory with a negative histogram, and RSI approached oversold levels at 28.6 during the session, suggesting a potential bounce near 0.2401–0.2405. Bollinger Bands were initially constricting volatility before expanding, with the price currently hovering near the lower band, indicating heightened bearish pressure.

Volume and turnover spiked between 19:00 and 20:00 ET, coinciding with the breakdown below 0.2440, confirming the move lower. Turnover reached a peak of 153,000 USDT at 20:15 ET, with no notable divergences in volume vs. price observed. Fibonacci retracements from the 0.2463–0.2391 swing show 38.2% at 0.2434 and 61.8% at 0.2403, both aligning with recent consolidation levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering a short position at the bearish engulfing pattern on 18:00 ET with a stop-loss above the 0.2455 resistance and a target near the 0.2391 low, with position sizing based on RSI levels and Bollinger Band positioning. If RSI remains below 30 and price stays below the lower band, the strategy could be extended with a trailing stop to lock in gains. This approach aligns with the observed momentum and structure, focusing on confirmed bearish setups and key Fibonacci levels.