Market Overview: BELUSDT on 2025-09-21

• BELUSDT opened at $0.2583 and traded between $0.2563 and $0.2741 before closing at $0.2651.
• Strong bullish momentum in late morning ET pushed price 8.6% above prior resistance levels.
• Volume spiked dramatically during the 7:30–8:30 ET session, with 650k+ contracts traded.
• RSI entered overbought territory near 75, suggesting potential near-term profit-taking.
• Bollinger Bands show recent expansion, indicating increasing volatility and consolidation risks.

Bella Protocol/Tether (BELUSDT) opened at $0.2583 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.2651 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET. During the 24-hour period, the pair reached a high of $0.2741 and a low of $0.2563. The total volume amounted to 11,700,000 contracts, with a notional turnover of approximately $3.14 million, reflecting significant on-chain activity and liquidity shifts.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a strong bullish bias after 07:30 ET with a sharp upward reversal from $0.2635 to $0.2741, forming a textbook bullish engulfing pattern on a 15-minute timeframe. A critical resistance level was observed near $0.2729, which was briefly breached before consolidating. A Doji at $0.2672 at 09:45 ET marked a key pause in the upward momentum, suggesting potential short-term indecision. The support level at $0.2659 also held during pullbacks, indicating strong buyer interest below $0.27.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bullish trend. On the daily timeframe, the 50/100/200 EMA structure shows a positive crossover, with the 50 SMA above the 100 and 200, signaling a potential continuation of the uptrend. This alignment suggests the market is in a medium-term bullish phase.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a positive histogram with rising momentum during the 07:30–08:45 ET window, confirming the strength of the bullish wave. The signal line crossed above the MACD line during the key breakout, reinforcing the buy signal. The RSI reached 75–76 during the 07:45–08:30 ET period, indicating overbought conditions, which may lead to a short-term pullback or consolidation phase.

The RSI also showed a bullish divergence in the 09:30–10:15 ET window, as the price made a new high but the RSI failed to do so, hinting at a potential trend continuation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 07:30–09:00 ET window, reflecting heightened volatility due to strong buying pressure. By 09:30 ET, the bands began to contract slightly, which often precedes a breakout or continuation move. The closing price at $0.2651 resides near the middle band, suggesting that the market may be entering a phase of consolidation before resuming the upward trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakout from $0.2635 to $0.2741, particularly in the 7:30–8:30 ET session where over 650k contracts were traded. The increase in volume was well-aligned with the upward price move, confirming the strength of the bullish sentiment. Turnover also spiked in the same window, with notional value rising by approximately 300% from the 7:15 ET candle, indicating strong participation from institutional and retail buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent 15-minute swing from $0.2563 to $0.2741 has key Fibonacci levels at $0.2666 (38.2%) and $0.2607 (61.8%). The current price at $0.2651 is hovering near the 38.2% level, which could serve as a pivot for either a continuation of the bullish move or a test of the 61.8% support. If the price breaks below $0.2607, it could retest the key support at $0.2592 before potentially reaching $0.2576.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest could involve a breakout strategy triggered when the price closes above the 20-period EMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss set at the recent swing low and a take-profit target aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Given the high volume and positive momentum observed in the morning session, such a strategy could have captured a significant portion of the upward move from $0.2635 to $0.2741. This aligns with the observed MACD crossover and RSI divergence, suggesting a high probability setup.