Market Overview: Bella Protocol/Tether (BELUSDT)

• BELUSDT traded within a narrow range of 0.2321–0.2456 over 24 hours, closing near the lower half of its range at 0.2373.
• A sharp bearish move occurred after 17:00 ET, pulling price down 2.09%, followed by a gradual rebound into the night.
• The 15-minute RSI entered oversold territory multiple times, suggesting limited short-term upside momentum.
• Notional turnover surged during the late-night selloff, with over 226,669 USD in trading volume during the most active hour.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged in the early morning, hinting at potential short-term reversal but lacking confirmation.

Market Summary

Bella Protocol/Tether (BELUSDT) opened at 0.2376 on 2025-09-23 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.2456 before closing at 0.2373 on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET. The pair recorded a low of 0.2294, with a total 24-hour volume of 5,151,662.0 and a notional turnover of 1,224,768 USD. The price action featured a sharp bearish correction followed by a slow consolidation into the next day.

Structure & Formations

Price action on BELUSDT displayed a bearish bias in the afternoon of 2025-09-23, with a notable breakdown from key resistance near 0.2400. A long bearish candle formed at 17:00 ET, indicating strong selling pressure. After that, the price found support in the 0.2350–0.2360 range, with a bullish engulfing pattern forming between 05:30 and 05:45 ET, hinting at a potential short-term reversal. However, the move lacks confirmation due to the lack of volume divergence and a follow-through break.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages trended lower during the bearish leg but began to flatten and converge as the price consolidated in the morning. The 50-period line crossed the 20-period line in a potential golden cross setup, suggesting a possible shift in momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits above the 200-period MA, indicating a medium-term bullish bias, though the 100-period MA remains bearish.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative during the bearish move, with a bearish crossover and a pullback in the following hours. RSI dipped into the oversold zone (below 30) multiple times, including after the 05:30 ET bullish engulfing pattern, but failed to generate a sustained rebound. This suggests that while short-term oversold conditions exist, buying pressure remains weak.

Bollinger Bands

Price volatility increased during the bearish phase, with bands expanding significantly. The price briefly touched the lower band during the overnight consolidation, suggesting potential value, but failed to close above it. In the morning, the price rebounded to near the middle band, indicating a potential pause in the downtrend but not a reversal. The contraction of the bands in the late morning suggests reduced volatility and could precede a breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the bearish move, particularly in the 17:00–19:00 ET window, with a peak of 178,256.7 USD in notional turnover. This confirmed the breakdown from key resistance. However, volume dropped significantly during the overnight consolidation, despite a price rebound. This divergence weakens the likelihood of a strong reversal and suggests the rally is being driven by small buyers rather than institutional demand.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 17:00–05:45 ET swing (0.2456 to 0.2333), the price found support at the 61.8% level (0.2353), then tested the 78.6% level (0.2376) in the morning. A breakout above 0.2382 would target the 100% extension (0.2399), but current momentum is weak. On the daily chart, the pair is trading near the 38.2% retracement of the prior month’s decline, indicating a potential short-term floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on a bullish engulfing pattern with confirmation in the next candle and a breakout above the 61.8% Fibonacci level could provide a high-probability long entry. The strategy would target a 2–3% profit target with a stop loss below the previous swing low. Given the weak volume during the morning consolidation and the absence of a follow-through move, the strategy may benefit from incorporating additional filters such as RSI divergence and a volume spike on the breakout candle.