Market Overview: Bella Protocol/Tether (BELUSDT) – 2025-10-01

• Price surged 26.5% from 0.2301 to 0.2395 amid growing volume and momentum.• Key resistance at 0.2395–0.2401 was tested, with mixed follow-through buying seen post-breakout.• Volatility expanded dramatically in the 8:45–9:45 ET window, with volume spiking to over 200,000.• RSI reached 60–65, indicating elevated momentum but not yet overbought, while MACD showed bullish divergence.• Bollinger Bands showed contraction before the surge, followed by a sharp expansion as the price broke out.

Bella Protocol/Tether (BELUSDT) opened at 0.2301 (12:00 ET − 1) and closed at 0.2391 (12:00 ET) after hitting a high of 0.2418 and a low of 0.2301. Total volume was 1,622,367 and turnover was approximately $396,887. Price surged during the day, driven by increasing buying pressure in the late morning and early afternoon.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data revealed a strong bullish reversal pattern from 16:00–18:30 ET, followed by a breakout above key resistance at 0.2395–0.2401. A bullish engulfing pattern formed during the 9:30–9:45 ET session, followed by a doji at 10:15 ET, signaling indecision. The price consolidated briefly before surging again between 8:45–9:45 ET, where a large bullish candle (open: 0.2342, close: 0.2401) indicated strong institutional participation. A key support level emerged around 0.2373–0.2380, holding during a pullback phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA closely followed the price during the morning hours, but the 50-period MA began lagging behind as price momentum picked up. By 10:00–10:45 ET, the 50-period MA caught up and crossed above the 20-period MA, forming a golden cross, reinforcing bullish sentiment. For daily timeframes, the 50-period MA has been below the 100- and 200-period MAs, indicating a medium-term bearish bias, but the short-term dynamics have flipped in favor of bulls.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive at 10:00 ET and showed strong bullish divergence, with the line staying above the signal line until the close of the day. RSI moved from a base around 45–50 to 60–65, indicating growing momentum but not yet reaching overbought territory. This suggests the rally has some room to breathe, though caution is warranted as overbought conditions near 70 could trigger profit-taking.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility tightened between 6:00–8:45 ET before a sharp expansion coincided with the breakout. The price remained above the upper Bollinger Band during the 8:45–9:45 ET window, signaling strong momentum. After that, it retracted into the band, testing the lower band between 11:30–12:45 ET but holding above it, indicating that the bullish trend remains intact.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 8:45–9:45 ET session, with over 238,000 contracts traded and a peak turnover of $58,000. This spike correlated with the 0.2395–0.2401 breakout, confirming the move as strong and not a false positive. Subsequent pullbacks from 11:45–13:00 ET saw lower volume and turnover, suggesting that the move may not be fully confirmed unless further volume picks up.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 16:00–8:45 ET swing, the price retraced to 0.2373–0.2383 (61.8%), which became a key support zone. The 0.2395–0.2401 level was the 127.2% extension, indicating a potential target for further buying. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the previous bearish leg sits around 0.2373–0.2380, aligning with recent support seen in the 24-hour data.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy involves entering a long position when price closes above the 50-period MA on a 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below the 20-period MA and a target set at the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the most recent bullish swing. Based on today’s action, this strategy would have triggered a long entry around 10:00–10:30 ET, with an initial stop near 0.2373–0.2380 and a target near 0.2401–0.2405. The MACD and RSI divergence further supports the setup, indicating that the move could extend if volume remains supportive.