Market Overview for Bella Protocol/Tether (BELUSDT) - 2025-09-25

• Price fell sharply after a brief rebound, closing near the day’s low.
• Momentum indicators show bearish divergence with price.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the latter half of the day.
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating a period of uncertainty.
• Volume spiked during key downside moves, confirming bearish sentiment.

Bella Protocol/Tether (BELUSDT) opened at 0.2384 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.2295 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. The pair hit a high of 0.2388 and a low of 0.2247 during the 24-hour window. Total volume was 1,296,216.1 with a notional turnover of $309,209.6 (calculated using average price).

Structure & Formations

The price of BELUSDT followed a descending trend after a short-term rally failed to hold above 0.2380. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 0.2375-0.2382 during the evening hours of 2025-09-24, signaling a shift in sentiment. A long lower shadow appeared at 0.2285-0.2295 on 2025-09-25, suggesting temporary support but failing to confirm a reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages were in a bearish alignment, with price staying well below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100 and 200-period MAs, confirming a broader bearish trend. Price closed below all three, indicating continued selling pressure.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained negative and below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum. RSI dipped below 30 early on 2025-09-25 and lingered in oversold territory, but failed to generate a meaningful bullish reversal. A bearish divergence was observed between RSI and price during the late morning, suggesting further downside may follow.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion during the day, particularly after the price dropped below 0.23. Price spent most of the session near or below the lower band, indicating a period of heightened volatility and bearish dominance. A consolidation phase may follow if the bands begin to contract again.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during key downside moves, especially between 01:00 and 04:00 ET, as price fell below 0.23. The largest volume spike occurred around 0.2314-0.2310, with over 161,000 contracts traded. However, turnover did not rise proportionally, suggesting that the move was likely driven by large orders. A price-volume divergence occurred during the early morning, when volume was high but price failed to make a decisive move.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the key Fibonacci levels were 0.2361 (38.2%), 0.2344 (50%), and 0.2328 (61.8%). The price found some temporary support at 0.2314 (61.8%) before breaking through. On the daily chart, the 0.2345 level appears critical for short-term support. A break below 0.2295 could see the pair test the 0.2260 level next.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering short positions on a bearish engulfing pattern that occurs near key resistance levels, confirmed by a closing price below the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart. Stop-loss is placed at the high of the engulfing pattern, and the target is set at the nearest Fibonacci 61.8% level. Given the recent bearish divergence in momentum and the confirmation of key resistance breaks, this strategy appears valid in the current context.