Market Overview for Bancor/Tether (BNTUSDT): November 4, 2025

• BNTUSDT opened at 0.5309, surged to 0.5441, and closed at 0.5282 with heavy intraday volatility.
• Volume spiked to 53127.8 during the 6:30–6:45 AM ET window, signaling a key reversal attempt.
• RSI and MACD indicate oversold conditions, suggesting a potential rebound.

Bancor/Tether (BNTUSDT) opened at 0.5309 at 12:00 ET − 1 and reached a high of 0.5441 before closing at 0.5282 as of 12:00 ET. The pair traded within a range of 0.5309 to 0.5441 over the 24-hour period, with a total volume of 333,412.8 and turnover of approximately 174,059.8 (notional). The price action shows sharp intraday volatility, with a bearish reversal forming in the final hours.

The structure of the 15-minute OHLCV data reveals a bearish trend over the last 24 hours, particularly after 6:30 AM ET, when the price peaked at 0.5441 and entered a steep decline. A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 11:00 AM ET, confirming a short-term reversal. Key support levels appear near 0.5200 and 0.5100, while resistance remains intact at 0.5441 and 0.5500. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed below the price at the end of the session, reinforcing the bearish bias.

MACD showed a bearish crossover during the late morning hours, aligning with the sharp decline. The RSI dipped into oversold territory below 30 by 11:30 AM ET, hinting at potential short-term bounces. However, without a clear break above the 0.5300 level, the momentum remains bearish. Bollinger Bands indicate a volatility expansion, with prices moving near the lower band—suggesting a possible mean reversion. The 50-period EMA on the daily chart sits above the 200-period EMA, indicating a bearish longer-term trend.

Fibonacci retracements on the recent 15-minute move show that the 0.5282 close aligns with the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting a critical support zone. Divergences between price and volume in the final hours of the session may indicate a lack of conviction in the downtrend. High volume surges observed at the top of the move (around 0.5441) are classic signs of profit-taking and exhaustion. A reversal may be more probable if volume increases on the next up-move, as it would signal renewed buying pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

The back-test for a strategy using the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern on BNTUSDT, as applied to the given 15-minute OHLCV data, reveals a critical flaw in the execution logic. By entering and exiting on the same timestamp (e.g., entering at the close and exiting at the same close), the trade price remains unchanged, resulting in zero P/L. This approach lacks a price differential to generate profit or loss, thus making all associated metrics flat.

The Bearish Engulfing pattern, while a strong intraday bearish signal, is not validated in a long-only strategy—especially when exits are not staggered or delayed. To improve the hypothesis, consider opening a short position at the next day's open and closing it at a later defined exit (e.g., end of day or based on a stop-loss). Alternatively, reverse the logic and go long only if the pattern occurs near a major support level, with a multi-day holding period. Introducing risk controls—such as stop-loss, take-profit, or max-holding-days—can also improve the signal-to-noise ratio.

Finally, expanding the test universe beyond a single pair or asset can help determine if the pattern holds statistical relevance. If you'd like to run this strategy with any of these adjustments, let me know—I can generate a revised backtest for you.