Market Overview for Axie Infinity/Tether USDt (AXSUSDT) – September 6, 2025

• Price opened at $2.363 and closed at $2.361, with a 24-hour high of $2.399 and low of $2.348
• A bullish breakout attempt occurred, but failed to hold above $2.392 due to bearish rejection
• Momentum indicators suggest overbought conditions, with RSI peaking near 70
• Volatility expanded significantly during the 15-minute chart, with price fluctuating within a $0.05 range
• Volume surged during the rally above $2.395, followed by a divergence with price during the pullback

Axie Infinity/Tether USDt (AXSUSDT) opened at $2.363 on September 5, 2025, at 12:00 ET - 1, and closed at $2.361 by 12:00 ET on September 6, 2025. The 24-hour high reached $2.399, while the low hit $2.348. Total traded volume amounted to 192,572.81 units, with a notional turnover of $463,994.73.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour 15-minute chart revealed a series of key support and resistance levels. A critical resistance zone emerged around $2.395–$2.399, where price struggled to maintain above during the late evening hours. On the downside, a strong support level formed around $2.362–$2.365, where the price bounced multiple times. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at $2.399 during the early hours of September 6, signaling potential short-term bearish momentum. A morning doji around $2.389 also suggested indecision and a possible reversal point in the short term.

Moving Averages and MACD / RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed near $2.375, forming a potential neutral zone for traders. The 50-period moving average has been trending slightly upward, but the 20-period MA has started to cross below it, suggesting a possible bearish signal. The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the early hours of September 6, indicating bearish momentum. The RSI reached a peak of 70 during the late evening, suggesting overbought conditions. However, the RSI has since declined to the mid-50s, showing a reversion toward equilibrium.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

The Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion in volatility after 20:00 ET on September 5, with the price frequently testing the upper band during the rally to $2.399. The bands have since narrowed slightly, but the price has remained near the middle band, indicating a consolidation phase. The upper band currently sits at around $2.40, while the lower band has settled near $2.35–$2.36.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the bullish breakout attempt above $2.395, peaking at 25,043.7 units during the 21:30–21:45 ET candle. However, as the price pulled back below $2.392, volume declined, while turnover also dropped, signaling a potential divergence. This divergence suggests that bullish momentum may be fading. The pullback below $2.392 saw a drop in volume and turnover, indicating a lack of conviction from buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute move from $2.348 to $2.399, the key levels to watch are $2.379 (38.2%), $2.366 (50%), and $2.353 (61.8%). Price has tested the 50% retracement level around $2.366 multiple times, which appears to have become a key psychological support level. A break below $2.353 could trigger further bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed price behavior and technical signals, a potential backtest hypothesis could involve a mean reversion strategy using the 50-period moving average as a dynamic support/resistance line. A long entry would be triggered when price crosses above the 50-period MA with a bullish candlestick pattern (e.g., a morning star or a bullish engulfing) and volume surges. A short entry would be considered when price breaks below the 50-period MA with a bearish reversal pattern and a divergence in RSI and volume. A stop-loss could be placed at the nearest Fibonacci level, and a profit target could be set at the next key resistance or Fibonacci level.