Market Overview for Axie Infinity/Tether USDt (AXSUSDT)

• Price traded in a tight range early, but broke out to a 2.40 high before retracing to 2.37.
• Volume surged near the high but declined with the pullback, suggesting temporary strength.
• RSI indicates neutral momentum, while MACD turned positive, supporting a short-term bullish bias.
• Volatility expanded with the breakout but has since contracted, pointing to possible consolidation.
• 2.36–2.37 appears to be a key support, with 2.39–2.40 as resistance.

Price Movement and Open Interest

Axie Infinity/Tether USDt (AXSUSDT) opened at 2.363 on 2025-09-05 12:00 ET and closed at 2.377 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-06. The pair reached a high of 2.403 and a low of 2.348 during the 24-hour period. Total trading volume amounted to approximately 458,067.82 USD, with notional turnover reaching $1,097,501.81.

The price exhibited a breakout pattern late in the session, reaching a high near 2.40 before consolidating back toward 2.377. The move was supported by a volume spike around the 2.40–2.403 area. The price has formed a bullish engulfing pattern near the high and a bearish harami at the 2.38–2.379 level. A doji appeared at 2.399–2.40, signaling indecision and potential for consolidation or reversal.

Technical Indicators and Trends

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are closely aligned, both sitting near 2.38–2.385. The 50-period line is slightly above the 20-period, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages are converging from the top, indicating a potential bearish crossover in the near term. This could add downward pressure if the consolidation fails.

The MACD is positive, with the line crossing above the signal line, supporting a short-term bullish stance. However, the RSI is hovering near the 55–60 range, which is neutral to moderately overbought. No extreme overbought or oversold conditions are currently in play, though the RSI may reach overbought territory if the breakout continues.

Bollinger Bands are wide near the high and have begun to contract, indicating a potential reduction in volatility. The price is currently trading near the upper band after the breakout, which may act as a short-term resistance. A break above the upper band would suggest a continuation of the bullish move, while a retest of the lower band could signal a pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could be built around breakout patterns and RSI thresholds. For instance, a long entry could be triggered on a close above the upper Bollinger Band, with a stop loss placed just below the 2.36–2.37 support zone. A short entry could be considered if the price closes below the 50-period MA after the RSI shows a divergence or enters the overbought region. This approach could be backtested across multiple timeframes and volatility states to optimize risk-reward ratios.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked near the 2.403 high, supporting the bullish breakout, but then declined as the price pulled back. This indicates strong conviction in the upward move but less follow-through in the consolidation phase. Notional turnover also spiked during the breakout, aligning with the price action. A divergence between volume and price movement has yet to appear, suggesting that the move remains supported by buyers.

Looking at the 15-minute data, the highest volume spike occurred at 2025-09-06 03:30:00, with a 15,015.36 volume and a close at 2.400. The following candle saw a pullback to 2.394, indicating a healthy rejection of the 2.400 level.

Fibonacci and Key Levels

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2.348–2.403 swing lies at 2.379, which the price is currently testing. A break above this level would point to a potential target at 2.396–2.40. On the daily chart, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the larger move from 2.20 to 2.40 is at 2.35, and this level has acted as a minor support in the recent pullback.

The 2.36–2.37 and 2.39–2.40 levels appear to be the most significant on the 15-minute chart, while the 50-period MA and upper Bollinger Band are the most relevant in the short term. A break above 2.40 would suggest continuation of the bullish trend, while a drop below 2.36 could initiate a deeper pullback.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caveat

The current setup suggests that AXSUSDT could continue to trade in a narrow range between 2.36 and 2.40 for the next 24 hours. If buyers manage to push the price above 2.40 and hold it there, a rally to 2.41–2.42 may follow. However, if the price closes below 2.36, this could trigger a deeper pullback toward 2.34–2.35, exposing more downside risk. Investors should monitor the 50-period MA and RSI for confirmation of the next directional move.