Market Overview for Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) – September 25, 2025 (12:00 ET)

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• AXSUSDT dropped 5.3% 24-hour amid bearish momentum and strong bearish volume spikes in early ET trading.
• Key support tested at $2.100, with price bouncing slightly afterward, but RSI remains in oversold territory.
• High volatility noted as price traded within a $0.14 range, with Bollinger Bands widening during the late ET sell-off.
• Volume surged 5x above average during the $2.100 test, but price failed to recover meaningfully.
• Bearish engulfing patterns appeared during early morning ET, signaling increased bear pressure.

Price Action and Basic Statistics

At 12:00 ET on September 25, 2025, AXSUSDT opened at $2.231, reached a high of $2.243, and a low of $2.079, closing at $2.115. Over the 24-hour window, total volume amounted to 1.465 million AXS while turnover reached $312,600, marking a moderate increase in participation and a bearish sentiment trend. The price action reflects a bearish bias, particularly evident in the late-night ET sell-off and early-morning consolidation.

Structure & Formations

Price has tested and partially rejected key support at $2.100 during the early ET hours. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at $2.241–$2.231, followed by a doji near $2.180, suggesting indecision. A potential bullish reversal pattern was observed at $2.120–$2.125, though it failed to hold against a late morning sell-off. The price appears to be forming a short-term bear channel between $2.150 and $2.120 with recent bearish divergence between price and RSI.

Volatility and Moving Averages

Bollinger Bands have recently expanded, reflecting increased volatility. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have both been bearish, with the 50-period line currently at $2.155. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA remains above $2.170, indicating a longer-term bearish bias. Price has remained below all key moving averages for the past four hours, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Momentum Indicators and Fibonacci Levels

The RSI is currently at 28, indicating oversold conditions, but has not confirmed a bottom yet. MACD remains negative with a bearish crossover, suggesting continued downward pressure. Fibonacci retracements from the recent swing high at $2.243 to the low at $2.079 show key levels at $2.199 (38.2%), $2.146 (61.8%), and $2.108 (78.6%). The price is consolidating near $2.115, a level that aligns with the 78.6% retracement and could either find support or accelerate downward.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy emphasizes a breakout above the 20-period MA as a bullish trigger, with a stop-loss placed below the 50-period MA. A bearish trigger is a close below the 50-period MA, with a stop-loss above the 20-period MA. The strategy targets a 2–3% move in the direction of the breakout over a 4-hour window. Given the current price action and indicator setup, a bearish breakout is more probable, but traders should remain cautious of false breakouts near the $2.115–$2.125 range.