Market Overview for Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT)

Summary

• Price swung down to a 24-hour low of 1.205 before rebounding to 1.255, forming a bullish recovery pattern.• Momentum waned in late hours with RSI near 50, suggesting neutral territory and potential consolidation.• Volatility surged early, but volume waned in late ET, signaling possible exhaustion of short-term bearish pressure.

Opening Narrative

Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) opened at 1.265 on 2025-11-03 at 17:00 ET, touched a 24-hour high of 1.298 and a low of 1.205, and closed at 1.23 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-04. The 24-hour volume totaled 1,456,850.39 with a turnover of approximately $1,803,589. Price appears to be consolidating within a key range ahead of potential breakouts.

Structure & Formations

Over the past 24 hours, AXS/USDT formed multiple bearish and bullish candlestick structures. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 19:30 ET, indicating pressure to continue downward. A doji formed near 1.215 at 11:45 ET, signaling indecision at the lower end of the range. Key support levels appear to be forming around 1.212-1.215 and 1.205, while resistance is visible near 1.236 and 1.243.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are converging, with the 20 MA above the 50 MA, suggesting a short-term bullish tilt. However, the 50 MA is still above the current price, signaling caution. On a broader daily scale, the 50 and 200 MA are diverging, with the 200 MA acting as a dynamic support level. The price could test the 50 MA again in the next 24 hours, which may influence short-term positioning.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive in the last six hours, with a narrowing histogram suggesting a potential shift in momentum. The RSI currently sits around 50, indicating a neutral momentum zone. This implies that AXS/USDT may not be overbought or oversold, but rather consolidating ahead of the next directional move. A break above 60 could indicate renewed bullish interest.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the early part of the day, pushing price to the upper Bollinger Band. However, in the last eight hours, volatility has contracted, with price trading near the middle band. This contraction could indicate a buildup for a potential breakout. If price breaks the upper or lower band again, it may confirm a new trend. Currently, price appears to be within a trading range, with the middle band hovering near 1.23.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the early part of the day, particularly between 17:30 and 19:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp decline to the 1.215 level. However, volume has since tapered off, suggesting a lack of conviction in the bearish move. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, with a large spike at 17:30 ET and a gradual decline through the day. The divergence between volume and price movement in the latter part of the 24-hour period suggests that further movement may require stronger participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 1.298 to 1.205, key retracement levels at 38.2% (1.242) and 61.8% (1.259) appear to be critical for near-term support and resistance. Price has tested the 38.2% level and may now be consolidating around that area. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent larger move lies near 1.245, which could become a strategic target for bullish traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current technical environment and the absence of real-time RSI data, a possible backtesting strategy could involve using raw 15-minute price candles to calculate RSI locally and test a 3-day-hold strategy from 2022-01-01 to today. Using the raw OHLCV data provided, an RSI-based signal could be generated for entries and exits. For instance, a long entry could be triggered when RSI dips below 30 (oversold), and a short entry when it exceeds 70 (overbought). The 20/50 MA crossover could also be used as a confirmation filter. This approach could provide insights into AXS/USDT's historical behavior under similar market conditions and help refine strategies for future trading.