Market Overview for Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT)

• AXSUSDT traded in a consolidating range between $1.643 and $1.781, with a final 24-hour close of $1.762.
• Key resistance around $1.73–$1.75 and support near $1.69–$1.70 were tested multiple times throughout the session.
• Volatility spiked during the late New York session, with volume surging past 85k as price approached $1.78.
• Momentum signals showed overbought conditions at several peaks, suggesting potential for a pullback.
• A bullish breakout above $1.78 may invite further buying, but a retest of $1.70–$1.72 is likely if momentum weakens.

Price Action and Open Interest

Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) opened at $1.647 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET and traded as low as $1.643 before climbing to a 24-hour high of $1.781. The pair closed at $1.762 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-13. Over the past 24 hours, the total trading volume amounted to approximately 788,000 units, with a notional turnover of $1.33 million, indicating moderate liquidity. Price action suggests a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers in the $1.69–$1.75 corridor.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a bullish engulfing pattern near $1.68, which marked the beginning of a steady climb. Subsequent candles formed a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating a shift in short-term sentiment. A notable bearish divergence emerged around $1.78 as volume waned despite the price making a new high, hinting at potential exhaustion. Resistance appears to be forming around $1.73–$1.75, with support zones near $1.69–$1.70 and $1.64–$1.66.

Moving Averages and MACD

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in a bullish alignment, with price above both. The MACD crossed above the signal line twice during the session, signaling positive momentum, although the divergence mentioned earlier suggests caution. On the daily chart, the 50-day moving average is positioned below the 100-day line, indicating a broader consolidation phase.

Relative Strength Index and Volatility

RSI-14 reached overbought territory multiple times, particularly around $1.75 and $1.78, suggesting that the pair could face profit-taking pressure. Bollinger Bands were relatively wide during the late New York session, reflecting higher volatility. Price remained within the upper band during the breakout attempt, showing that the move was aggressive but not yet sustainable. A retest of the lower band, currently near $1.70–$1.72, is likely if momentum fails to carry beyond $1.78.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the most recent 15-minute swing from $1.643 to $1.781, key retracement levels fall at $1.73 (61.8%) and $1.70 (38.2%). These levels corresponded closely with observed consolidation areas, suggesting that the 61.8% level acted as a psychological threshold for traders. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels from a broader swing high and low suggest that $1.78 is a key area for further validation of the uptrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the multiple RSI-14 overbought readings observed during the past 24 hours, a backtest using a simple RSI-based strategy would be relevant to this pair. The proposed strategy—buying when RSI crosses above 70 and selling on a re-entry below 70—could have captured several short-term reversals and breakouts. However, the late-session bearish divergence and volume contraction suggest that such a strategy may also result in false signals if used in isolation. To improve accuracy, incorporating a volume filter or a moving average crossover could enhance the strategy's reliability, particularly in volatile environments.