Market Overview for Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT): 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-10-11

• Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) fell 23.6% from $2.10 to $1.61 over 24 hours, signaling strong bearish momentum.
• Volatility spiked with a low of $0.807 followed by a rebound to $1.70, suggesting heightened market uncertainty.
• Volume and turnover surged during the sell-off, especially between 21:00–23:45 ET, confirming bearish conviction.
• RSI dropped below 30 and MACD turned negative, reinforcing oversold but divergent price-volume dynamics.
• Bollinger Bands showed a wide expansion, reflecting increased market noise and directional confusion.

Overview and Key Metrics

Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) opened at $2.10 (12:00 ET – 1), reached a high of $2.121, a low of $0.807, and closed at $1.636 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. Total volume reached 9.76 million AXS, and notional turnover amounted to $16.12 million over the 24-hour period, with significant selling pressure evident in the early evening ET session.

Structure & Formations

Price action unfolded in a sharp bearish breakdown after a failed rebound in the mid-day. A key support level was identified near $1.60, where price rebounded briefly but failed to hold, as seen in the candlestick formations such as bearish engulfing and long lower shadows, signaling ongoing seller dominance. A notable breakdown occurred below the prior 24-hour low of $2.006, triggering a freefall to $0.807. This area could now act as a potential short-term floor if buying interest emerges, aligning with Fibonacci 61.8% retracement levels from the recent high of $2.121.

Moving Averages and Trends

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed into bearish alignment in the late afternoon, confirming the downtrend. The 50/100/200SMA on the daily chart remain bearish with the 50SMA crossing below the 200SMA (death cross), suggesting continued bearish pressure for the near term. Price appears to be below all major moving averages, indicating a lack of near-term support from trend-following strategies.

MACD & RSI Analysis

The RSI dropped below 30, entering oversold territory, but failed to trigger a meaningful rebound, pointing to a possible divergence or exhaustion of short-term buying interest. Meanwhile, the MACD line turned negative and remained below the signal line with bearish divergence, reinforcing the downtrend. However, the divergence between price and momentum indicators suggests caution: while the trend is bearish, a reversal or consolidation might be on the horizon.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly between 21:00–23:45 ET, indicating increased volatility during the critical sell-off phase. The price briefly touched the upper band before collapsing to the lower band, a classic sign of a parabolic move. The wide band width suggests heightened market uncertainty and potential for both continuation or reversal. Price currently resides near the lower band, with a potential bounce back toward the middle band expected if the trend weakens.

Volume & Turnover Dynamics

Volume spiked during the key breakdown phase, particularly in the 15-minute candles from 21:00 to 23:45 ET, with the largest volume candle recording over 690,968 AXS traded. This confirms the significance of the breakdown and reinforces the bearish narrative. However, in the last 6 hours of the 24-hour period, volume declined while price bounced slightly, indicating possible exhaustion in the downtrend and hinting at a potential short-term reversal or consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 24-hour swing from $0.807 to $2.121, the 61.8% retracement level is around $1.60, where price found temporary support. The 50% level at $1.463 and the 38.2% level at $1.675 are also in play. On the daily chart, key resistance could emerge near $1.767 (previous high from 21:15 ET) and $2.09 (prior support-turned-resistance). These levels may dictate the next directional bias, depending on whether buying pressure reemerges at $1.60 or if the trend continues to $1.40 or below.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for this pair could involve a mean-reversion approach using Bollinger Bands and RSI. Specifically, a long entry could be triggered when the price touches the lower band and RSI drops below 30, with a stop loss below the recent swing low and a target at the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Conversely, a short entry could be considered when price reaches the upper band and RSI crosses above 70, with a target at the 61.8% retracement. This strategy would benefit from the heightened volatility observed in the last 24 hours and could be optimized with a 15-minute timeframe and trailing stops to capture rebounds or continuations.