Market Overview for Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis as of 2025-09-22

• Price dropped 14.7% from $2.411 to $2.190 over the last 24 hours.
• A bearish breakdown from prior support turned resistance at $2.32–$2.35 is now in play.
• MACD and RSI confirm bearish momentum, with RSI near oversold levels below 30.
• Bollinger Bands show expanding volatility with price sitting below the lower band.
• Volume and turnover spiked during the $2.25–$2.11 collapse, suggesting aggressive selling.

The price of Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) opened at $2.411 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $2.419, a low of $2.113, and closed at $2.190 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. Total volume for the 24-hour window was approximately 755,997 and turnover (amount) was $1.38 million. The price action suggests a bearish continuation as key support levels are being tested.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern during the early hours showed a large bearish engulfing pattern forming around $2.38–$2.39, followed by a series of bearish pin bars and inside bars between $2.32 and $2.25. A critical support level is now forming near $2.11–$2.15, with a potential for a bounce or continuation of the downtrend. A doji near $2.19 at the 12:00 close may indicate short-term exhaustion, but bearish control remains strong. The $2.32–$2.35 area now acts as resistance after failing as support earlier.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearishly aligned, with the price well below both. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is near $2.38, while the 200-period MA sits above $2.45. The price remains below all three major moving averages (50, 100, 200), confirming a medium-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has shown consistent bearish divergence over the past 8 hours, with the histogram shrinking in magnitude during the $2.19–$2.22 consolidation. RSI has been in oversold territory below 30 for several hours, indicating potential for a short-term rebound. However, the RSI remains bearish in the context of the broader trend. The bearish crossover in MACD has not yet triggered a significant rally, suggesting that bearish sentiment dominates.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands are currently wide, indicating increased volatility, especially during the $2.25–$2.11 drop. Price has been near or below the lower band for much of the last 12 hours, signaling oversold conditions. A potential bounce near the lower band could test the $2.15–$2.18 range, which may offer short-term support before the trend resumes lower.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover spiked dramatically during the $2.25–$2.11 breakdown, with several 15-minute intervals showing over 400k in volume. This aligns with the sharp price drop and confirms strong bearish conviction. However, the recent consolidation at $2.19–$2.20 shows moderate volume with no clear directional bias, suggesting a possible pause in the downtrend or a short-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent swing from $2.41 (high) to $2.11 (low), the 61.8% level is near $2.18, which aligns with the current consolidation. A potential bounce from this level could see a retest of the 50% retracement at $2.26, though bearish control remains intact. On the daily chart, key Fibonacci levels are at $2.38 (38.2%), $2.30 (50%), and $2.22 (61.8%).

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy suggests taking short positions on breakouts below key Fibonacci levels (especially 61.8%) during periods of high volatility and divergence in RSI. Given the current bearish structure and confirmed breakdowns, a backtest using this approach could yield profitable signals during the $2.113 low. The high volume and RSI divergence seen in the last 6 hours align well with the strategy’s criteria for entry, with stop-loss placement just above $2.19 doji. The strategy appears to confirm the observed price behavior and could serve as a basis for further optimization.