Market Overview for Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) — 2025-10-20

• AXSUSDT traded lower in 24 hours, closing at 1.614 after opening at 1.587
• Volatility picked up mid-session with a 1.625 high and 1.560 low observed
• Volume spiked above 50k around 00:15 and 06:00 ET, matching key price pivots
• RSI and MACD suggest bearish momentum, but Bollinger Band contraction hints at potential reversal
• Fibonacci levels at 1.614 and 1.587 show immediate support and resistance for near-term action

The 24-hour chart for Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) showed a bearish bias as the pair closed at 1.614, down from an open of 1.587. The session saw a high of 1.625 and a low of 1.560, reflecting heightened volatility. Total volume reached 428,085.7, with turnover driven by spikes exceeding 50k in early morning and midday ET. These spikes coincided with key price levels, suggesting institutional or algorithmic activity at critical psychological thresholds.

A bearish structure formed following the early morning sell-off, with a series of lower highs and a bearish divergence between price and RSI indicating weakening bullish conviction. The price action around 1.625 and 1.616 displayed potential resistance, while a descending triangle formation from 1.635 to 1.614 suggests a continuation of the bearish trend. A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred at 07:30 ET, confirming a short-term reversal from a rally.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed below the price, reinforcing the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA at 1.600 and 200-period MA at 1.580 appear to form a short-term confluence of support. MACD turned negative with a bearish crossover, and RSI dipped below 50, confirming a loss of upside momentum. Bollinger Bands expanded during the midday sell-off, indicating increased uncertainty and potential for a mean reversion around the 1.614–1.618 level.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 1.636 swing high to the 1.560 low identified key levels of 1.614 (61.8%), 1.605 (50%), and 1.593 (38.2%). The price has stalled at the 61.8% level, suggesting a temporary consolidation phase. If buyers fail to push the price above 1.619, the 1.605 level becomes the next target for further correction. Conversely, a break above 1.635 could signal renewed bullish pressure, challenging the 1.626–1.631 range.

The price may test the 1.614 Fibonacci support in the next 24 hours. A break below could trigger a retest of the 1.593 level, but a rejection at 1.614–1.618 may see consolidation and a potential reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the identified 15-minute patterns and price behavior, a backtest using a daily proxy approach could assess the effectiveness of a short-term bearish strategy. For example, a signal triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern at 07:30 ET could be tested by entering the position at the open of the next trading day and exiting at the close. Alternatively, an event-study approach could analyze the average performance of the pair 1, 2, and 3 days after such patterns. This would allow for a robust evaluation of whether these signals have a statistically significant edge in the AXSUSDT market.