Market Overview for Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) as of 2025-10-16 12:00 ET

• AXSUSDT declined to 1.6000 on 24-hour volume of 947,705.66, with 1.6240-1.6990 as recent key levels.
• Volatility expanded in the last 6 hours, with a sharp drop from 1.6920 to 1.6000.
• Bollinger Band contraction suggests range-bound trading ahead.
• MACD remained bearish, with RSI failing to signal overbought conditions.
• Fibonacci retracements suggest potential support at 1.6170 and 1.5910.

The Axie Infinity/Tether pair (AXSUSDT) opened at 1.6780 at 12:00 ET - 1, reached a high of 1.7060, and fell to a low of 1.5910 before closing at 1.6000 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 947,705.66, with turnover (notional value) reaching approximately $1.53 million. The decline was characterized by a sharp drop between 15:00 and 16:00 ET, where volume surged, and price dropped from 1.6240 to 1.6000.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a descending channel during the 24-hour period, with resistance at 1.6920 and support at 1.6000. A key bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 1.6920 on October 16 at 11:30 ET, confirming the downward momentum. A series of doji candles developed around 1.6440-1.6360, signaling indecision. The most significant support level appears at the 1.6170 Fibonacci level, where a potential bounce could occur.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price action after 16:00 ET, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is approaching the 1.6500 level, while the 200-period MA sits near 1.6700. A further decline may result in a bearish crossover of the 100 and 200-day lines, deepening the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained in negative territory for most of the 24-hour period, with the signal line crossing below the histogram line at 16:00 ET, indicating a strengthening downtrend. RSI failed to indicate overbought conditions at any point, remaining below 50 for the majority of the session. The RSI low of 28.7 at 16:00 ET suggests an oversold condition, though this has not translated into a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the 24-hour period, reflecting increased volatility, particularly after 15:00 ET. Price traded near the lower band for the final 5 hours, reaching 1.5910. A contraction of the bands may occur as volatility stabilizes, potentially setting the stage for a rebound within the 1.6170-1.6500 range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged between 15:00 and 16:00 ET, with a notable spike in the 15:45 candle (129,734.41 volume), coinciding with the sharp drop to 1.6000. Notional turnover followed the same pattern, peaking at $217,210.50. While volume confirmed the bearish move, the divergence between price and RSI suggests that further selling pressure may be limited.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute move from 1.7060 to 1.6000, key support levels include 1.6580 (38.2%) and 1.6170 (61.8%). A break below 1.6170 could target 1.5910 (78.6%). On the daily chart, the 1.6500 level (38.2% of a larger retracement) is a critical psychological level. A bounce from this zone could suggest a near-term bottom.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the absence of reliable RSI data for AXSUSDT, the backtest strategy must be re-evaluated. A potential alternative is to base the hypothesis on price action within Bollinger Bands. For instance, one could buy when the closing price is above the upper band and sell after three days. This approach could be tested using the available 15-minute OHLCV data. Alternatively, if RSI data becomes available for the pair, testing overbought conditions (RSI > 70) and exiting three days later may be viable. Both approaches are supported by the data structure and are aligned with the recent price behavior.